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Uttar Pradesh(UP) Exit Poll and Analysis 2019

Uttar Pradesh(UP) Exit Poll 2019

Uttar PradeshTIMES NOW - VMR582020 (BSP+SP+RLD)
Uttar PradeshABP-Cvoter22200
Uttar PradeshIndia TV-CNX502280
Uttar PradeshToday's Chanakya0000
Uttar PradeshRepublicTV - C Voter382400
Uttar PradeshRepublic Bharat - Jan Ki Baat46 - 572 - 421 - 320
Uttar PradeshNews Nation0000
Uttar PradeshIndia Today-Axis0000
Uttar PradeshChintamani - 5 Dots561230

Looking for Latest Exit Polls? Need to compare Exit Polls of different news channels?

Stay tuned to elections.in for Latest Updates on Exit Polls / Opinion Polls

Remember the Date - 19th May 2019 – 6 P.M.

Opinion polls are the reflection of the voter’s sentiments and different agencies are using different methodologies and sample size to modulate the opinion poll results. Elections.in provides a neutral opinion poll/Exit poll after doing the analysis of different media channels.

The decision of the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) to come together in Uttar Pradesh for the Lok Sabha elections 2019 may deal a massive blow to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) dream to repeat the 2014 poll magic, according the News Nation’s opinion poll.

The SP, BSP, RLD grand alliance may secure 42 seats, which could be a significant improvement from their last General Elections performance. The opinion poll conducted by the news channel found that the BJP and the Apna Dal may garner only 37 seats in the General Elections beginning from April 11. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP bagged 71 of the 80 seats, surpassing its highest tally of 58 seats in the state which had catapulted the NDA to power in 1998.

The SP, BSP and RLD have forged an alliance while elbowing the Congress out of it. The SP-BSP bonhomie won the Lok Sabha by-elections in Gorakhpur, Phulpur and Kairana last year. The Congress led by Rahul Gandhi may only win one seat. Interestingly, it seems newly appointed Congress general secretary UP (East) Priyanka Gandhi will make little impact on the results of the party.

Uttar Pradesh Exit Poll 2019 for Lok Sabha Elections by Various Pollsters

Uttar PradeshTIMES NOW - VMR582020 (BSP+SP+RLD)
Uttar PradeshABP-Cvoter0002 - NDA 4 - UPA 51 - others
Uttar PradeshIndia TV-CNX502280
Uttar PradeshToday's Chanakya652130
Uttar PradeshRepublicTV - C Voter382400
Uttar PradeshRepublic Bharat - Jan Ki Baat46 - 572 - 421 - 320
Uttar PradeshNews Nation38-402-338-400
Uttar PradeshIndia Today-Axis62-681-200
Uttar PradeshChintamani - 5 Dots561230

Uttar Pradesh(UP) Exit Poll 2017

Pollsters BJP SP+Cong BSP Others
TIMES NOW VMR 190-210 110-130 57-74 19
India News-MRC 185 120 90 8
ABP-CSDS 164-176 156-169 60-72 2 - 6
India TV-C Voter 155-167 135-147 81-93 8 - 20
News 24 Chanakya 285 88 27 3

It is saffron wave according to the Exit polls that were telecast on March 9 at 5.30 PM for UP assembly elections along with other state held in the Month of February and March. The election commission had earlier deferred the telecast of Exit polls in the wake of death of a candidate in Alapur constituency of UP. The election in Alapur was conducted on March 9 and the results were declared after the voting came to an end in Alapur.

There were six Exit polls done by various agencies in Uttar Pradesh and two of them Times Now-VMR, Today’s Chankya and India Today-Axis have predicted a clean sweep by BJP and given 200, 285 and 265 seats to the BJP respectively and 120, 88 and 100 seats to the SP-congress alliance. The BSP according to these surveys comes on third spot with seats between 27-90.

The other three exit polls conducted in UP however predict that the BJP would be the single largest party but would fall short of simple majority. ABP News-Lokniti, India TV-Cvoter and India News MRC surveys give 170,161 and 185 seats respectively to the BJP and 163,141 and 120 sets to the SP-Congress alliance. All polls unanimously predict a third place for the Bahujan Samaj Party. All eyes will now be on Saturday when the actual results would be announced.

ABP Exit Poll 2017 Uttar Pradesh

Party Phase 1(73 seats) Phase 2(67 seats) Phase 2(69 seats) Phase 4 (53 seats) Phase 5 (52 seats) Phase 6 (43 seats)
BJP 33-39 15-21 27-33 27-33 14-20 18-24
SP 20-26 37-43 25-31 16-22 21-27 14-20
BSP 12 - 16 7 - 11 9 - 13 2 - 6 8 - 12 8 - 12
Others 0 - 2 0 - 2 0 - 2 0 - 2 0 - 2 0 - 2

UP Assembly Election 2017 Opinion Polls Summary

Media Agencies Dates BJP SP+Cong BSP Others
India Today-Axis Jan 31, 2017 180-191 168-178 39-43 1–4
Times Now-VMR Jan 31, 2017 202 147 47 7
ABP News-Lokniti Jan 30, 2017 118-128 187-197 76-86 -
VDPAssociates Jan 29, 2017 207 128 58 -
THE WEEK-Hansa Research Jan 27th, 2017 192-196 178-182 20-24 5-9

Political Pundits predict a hung assembly in Uttar Pradesh

The bitterly fought UP elections are now over and it is time to speculate about the results. All the Political pundits are busy analyzing the ground reports and predicting the outcome of the UP elections which is being seen as a referendum on the prime Minister Modi’s demonetization drive and other policies. Apart from this the result of the UP election would be important as it would provide indications for the general elections to be held in 2019.

Manisha Priyam, a political analyst has predicted that BJP would get around 170-180 seats and emerge as the single largest party with SP-congress alliance securing 100- 110 seats. She feels BSP would get only 90-100 seats and RLD around 20-30 seats.

Ajit Jha , editor of India today also predicts a hung assembly with BJP securing 170 seats and SP-Cong winning 130. BSP he feels would get 90 seats. Javed Ansari, Executive editor, India Today also gives BJP 160 seats and feels SP-congress would win 140-150 seats while BSP would win 90-105 seats.

Sunita Aron, a Senior journalist predicts 160-180 for the BJP and 130-150 for SP-Congress. She gives BSP 90-100 seats. Uday Sinha also a Political analyst has predicted only 90 seats to the BJP and feels SP-Cong would be the highest party with 195-210 and BSP would get 105-115 seats.

Sharat Pradhan a Senior journalist has predicted that BJP would win 170-180 seats and SP-Congress would be close second with 150-160 seats while BSP would get only 70-80 seats.

Interestingly Anupam Kapil an astrologer has predicted on the same lines as political pundits but gives SP-Congress 185 seats with BJP getting 160 seats and predicting 53 seats for BSP.

The political analysts have thus given different figures with one similarity that it would be a hung assembly and only those who can get into post election alliance would be able to form the government. The results would be out on March 11.

Following is a detailed break-up of the results of different opinion polls conducted by independent media agencies:

Latest India Today-Axis Opinion Poll on Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2017

According to India Today-Axis survey, the BJP would win around 180-191 seats in Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. The poll also predicts a good number of seats for newly formed SP-congress alliance, giving them 168-178 seats, slightly behind the BJP. The poll also predicts a dismal performance by Bahujan Samaj Party which according to it would bag only 39-43 seats.

Interestingly according to the polls, there is only a slight difference between the vote share of the BJP and SP-congress alliance. BJP gets 34.8 percent of votes while the congress gets 33.2 percent of the total votes polled according to the survey.BSP would get 20.1 percent votes the survey says.

Party Name Projected Seat Share Vote Share %
BJP 180-191 34.8
Cong+SP 168-178 33.2
BSP 39-43 20.1
Others 1 - 4 11.9

Times Now-VMR survey on Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2017

Survey published date: Jan 31, 2017
Party Seat Share Vote Share (%)
BJP 202 34
SP+Cong 147 31
BSP 47 24
Others 7 11

The ABP survey predicts win for SP-Congress combine in UP

The SP- Congress alliance would be the single largest political group in the upcoming election in Uttar Pradesh. These are the predictions of a survey conducted by ABP News-Lokniti CSDS. The survey says that it, however, would fall short of the simple majority as it would be able to garner only 187 to 197 seats.

The poll also questioned people on who was their choice for the UP CM. 26 percent people chose Akhilesh Yadav over Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati. 21 percent respondents voted for her. The other important findings of the survey are that moe than 73 percent Muslims and Yadavs are inclined to vote for Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance while 59 percent of forward voters would back the BJP. Around 34 non-Yadav OBCs would vote for the BJP, the survey predicts.

The poll also surveyed the Dalits who it feels would en masse vote for the Bahujan Samaj Party. The majority of Dalits are Jatavs in Uttar Pradesh. The poll says around 79 percent of them would vote for BSP while only 10 percent would vote for Samajwadi Party. Rest are likely to vote for the BJP.
Party Seat Share Vote Share (%)
SP+Cong 187-197 35
BJP 118-128 29
BSP 76-86 23

Uttar Pradesh Seat Share Forecast by VDPAssociates

VDP Associates, an agency that conducts opinion poll has come up with startling revelations in its latest opinion poll conducted merely 15 days before the polls in the largest state of Uttar Pradesh. The Agency gives a clear majority to Bharatiya Janata Party in the coming polls. According to its poll, the BJP would get the majority with 207 seats in the house of 403. It would garner 35 percent votes and thus form the government.

What should come as a shocker to the ruling Samajwadi Party and the Congress, its alliance partner is that they would be second and third runner-ups in the assembly elections. SP would get 104 seats with 25 percent votes while congress would get 24 seats with 7 percent votes. Together as an alliance, they would get 128 seats harvesting 32 percent votes. The third contestant, the Bahujan Samaj Party of Maywati would have to be content with merely 58 seats as it would muster 22 percent votes.

The polls were conducted in 41 districts according to VDP Associates and had a sample size of 9119 spread in 87 constituencies. The rural profile was 81 percent of the sample.

Party Seat Share Vote Share (%)
BJP+ 207 35
SP+Cong 128 32
BSP 58 22

THE WEEK Hansa Predicts hung assembly in UP

An opinion poll conducted by THE WEEK-Hansa Research has predicted a hung house in Uttar Pradesh. The poll foretells that the BJP would be the single largest party in the state and that in the house of 403 the BJP is likely to get 192 to 196 seats while the SP- congress alliance would be second getting 178 to 182 seats. The poll predicts that the BSP would be relegated to the third place with just 20 to 24 seats. The independents and other parties are likely to get five to nine seats. The poll was conducted last week after SP and congress sealed an electoral alliance.

TIMES NOW-CVoter Snap Poll on UP

Party Dec 2016
Vote Share
Jan 2017 [SP Snap Poll]
Vote Share
BJP 29.4 30.2
BSP 23.4 24.2
Congress 5 5.8
SP 28.7 24.9
SP-MYS - 3.4
Other 13.6 11.5

UP Opinion Poll by India Today-Axis

On the day the Election Commission of India announced the polling schedule for five states, an opinion poll conducted by India Today-Axis from October to December 2016 has predicted a clear majority for BJP in Uttar Pradesh. The survey shows Prime Minister Narendra Modi's demonetisation drive as having a positive impact on the BJP's vote-share. Demonetisation was announced on November 8, halfway through the survey period. The survey shows the BJP's vote share increasing from 31% in October to 33% in December. In terms of seats, the survey projects 206-216 seats for BJP in the 403-member UP assembly.

Party Seat Share Votes Share %
BJP 206-216 33
SP 92-97 26
BSP 79-85  26
Congress  5-9  6
Other 7-11  9

ABP News-Lokniti CSDS Opinion Poll Uttar Pradesh

On the other hand, the ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS has predicted a close fight between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. The survey has given 141-151 seats to the Samajwadi Party, 129-139 to the BJP, 93-103 to the BSP and 13-19 to the Congress. According to 28 percent of the voters, incumbent Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav is projected to retain his seat. Bahujan Samaj Party president Mayawati is placed second in the survey results with 21 percent of the votes.

Only 3 percent of the voters picked Akhilesh Yadav’s father Mulayam Singh Yadav for the Chief Minister’s post. Voters also felt that Akhilesh's performance as Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister was better than that of Narendra Modi's performance as the prime minister, with 34 percent picking the former.

Amid the deepening feud within the Yadav clan, a whopping 86 percent of the poll respondents picked Akhilesh as their choice for Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister. Father Mulayam Singh and uncle Ram Gopal only found favour with 6 percent and 2 percent of the voters respectively. Interestingly, while support for the SP among Muslim voters appears to have fallen by 8 percentage points from August, the BJP appears to have made inroads with the community in the same time period. While the BJP is expected to bag 55 percent of the upper caste votes, the SP is expected to win 75 percent of the Yadav vote. The BSP is projected to win 74 percent votes from the Jatavs and 56 percent votes from the Dalit community.

Party Seat Share Votes %
SP 141-151 30
BJP+ 129-134 27
BSP 93-103  22
INC 13-19 8
Other 6-12  13

India Today-Axis Opinion Poll for Uttar Pradesh

Results of the India Today-Axis Opinion Poll, published on 12 October 2016, have indicated that if elections were to be held in Uttar Pradesh today, the BJP's dream run looks set to continue in Uttar Pradesh with the party expected to win 170 to 183 seats. Nonetheless, it won't be enough to get majority in the state. A party must secure at least 202 seats to form majority in the 403-member Uttar Pradesh Assembly. The elections are likely to result in a hung Assembly, the opinion poll has revealed. It goes on predict Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is to be the runner-up with 115-124 seats. Incumbent Samajwadi Party is likely get 94 to 103 seats and sit in opposition. The Congress, which has been out of power in the state since 1989, is likely to fare miserably again, with 8 to 12 seats.

Party Seat Share Vote Shares
BJP 170-183 31%
BSP 115-124 28%
SP 94-103 25%
Congress 8 - 12 6%
Others 2 - 6 10%

UP Opinion Poll Survey by VDPAssociates

(Oct, 2016)
Party Seat Share Vote Shares
BJP+ 190 31%
BSP 87 24%
SP 111 27%
Congress 5 5%
Others 10 13%

Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll by 'My Mandate and Pratishtha Research'

According to an opinion poll conducted by 'My Mandate and Pratishtha Research' and published on parliamentarian.in, the BSP is projected to win 169 seats in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh assembly elections and the BJP 135. The survey covered a sample of 25,000 voters in 60 assembly constituencies including all four regions of the state, that is, Avadh, Pashchim Uttar Pradesh, Bundelkhand and Purvanchal. The survey was conducted between August 10 and 27, 2016.

Current and projected seat positions as well as voting percentages for different political parties ahead of the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections.
Seat Voting Percentage
Party 2012 2017
2012 2017
SP 224 74 29 24
BSP 80 169 25 34
BJP 47 135 15 30
INC 28 15 12 10
Others 24 10 19 3

Zone-wise projected positions of different political parties ahead of 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly election.
Party Paschim Awadh Bundelkhand Purvanchal Total
SP 15 25 2 32 74
BJP 48 22 3 62 135
BSP 67 30 11 61 169
INC 2 2 3 8 15
Others 4 2 0 4 10

Uttar Pradesh Survey by India TV-CVoter

The survey was conducted between 1st and 31st August 2016, using a random stratified sample of 20,642 respondents across all 403 constituencies.
Party 2012 (Actual Seat) Seat Share Projections, 2016
BJP 47 134-150
BSP 80 95-111
SP 224 133-149
INC 28 5-13
Others 27 4-12

The survey further indicates that Akhilesh remains most desirable CM face in the state.
CM Candidate Vote %
Akhilesh Yadav 32.8%
Mayawati 28.2%
Sheila Dikshit 5.1%
Any BJP Leader 26%
Others 7.9%

Muslim vote division survey, August 2016
Party Muslim vote %
SP 50.2
BJP 2.7
BSP 21.7
INC 12.6
Others 12.8

SP ahead of BSP & BJP, INC in vein: ABP News-Lokniti CSDS Opinion Poll

In accordance to the opinion poll conducted by ABP News-Lokniti CSDS, if the 2017 UP Assembly elections are held now, then 30% of the voters would be in favor of the Samajwadi Party (SP), 27% would caste their votes for the BJP and another 26% would back the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP). Additionally, despite a rigorous campaign, the INC (Indian National Congress) is expected to settle for 5% of voters. The opinion poll was conducted between 23 July and 7 August 2016, with over 4000 people providing their insights on the forthcoming 2017 UP Assembly Elections. A key finding of this opinion poll is that both Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav and Bahujan Samajwadi Party’s Mayawati alias Behanji are indeed the people’s choice for Uttar Pradesh’s next chief minister.

Party Seats Vote %
Samajwadi Party 141-151 30
BJP 124-134 27
BSP 103-113 26
Congress 8-4 5
Others 6-12 12

ABP News-Cicero Opinion Poll on Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2017

Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections are due early next year and all the major political contenders have already begun their preparations to clinch victory in this politically significant state. ABP News-Cicero conducted a survey among 1,000 respondents to get an estimate of the voters' mood. The survey was conducted on July 24 and 25 in 10 constituencies of the state. According to the survey results, the BJP is most likely to form the next government in the state with SP and BSP as close runners-up.

Who would form the next government in UP?
BJP 32%
Samajwadi Party 26%
BSP 24%
Congress  7%
Hung assembly 4%
Can't say  7%
*percentage not indicative of vote share

The survey further indicates that Priyanka Gandhi may not be able to brighten Congress' fortunes in the state.

Can Priyanka bring Congress back in UP?
Yes  19%
No. 51%
Can't say 30%

UP Opinion Poll by ABP News

(March – 2016)
In what may set off alarm bells within the ruling Samajwadi Party, an opinion poll conducted by ABP News has predicted that the main opposition party BSP would win 185 seats in the 403-member assembly if elections were held in Uttar Pradesh today. Gauging the current mood of the state’s electorate, the latest opinion poll has revealed that BSP supremo Mayawati will come back in power in the state by tying up with allies. The BSP was reduced to 80 seats in the 2012 polls but if the latest opinion polls are anything to go by, the scenario might change in the next elections.

Here’s a party-wise break-up below:
Party Actual vote % in the 2012 election Actual seats in the 2012 elections Forecast vote % as per Opinion Poll Mar 2016 Forecast Seats as per Opinion Poll Mar 2016
BJP 15.3 42 24 120
AD 1 1
BSP 24.8 80 31 185
INC 11.5 29 11 13
RLD 2.3 8
SP 30.1 228 23 80
IND and Others 15 15 11 5
Total 100 403 100 403

Here's a region-wise break-up below:
Party Avadh Pradesh Bundelkhand Paschim Pradesh Purvanchal Total
BJP+ 19 5 32 64 120
BSP 31 11 30 63 185
INC+ 1 1 3 8 13
SP 12 2 23 38 80
IND and Others 0 0 2 3 5
Total 63 19 145 176 403

Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll by VDPAssociates

Forecast vote % and seats
as per Opinion Poll July 2016
Actual vote % and Seats in
the 2012 election
Party Seats Vote % Seats Vote %
BSP 165 29.8 80 25.9
BJP+ 149 28.5 47 15
SP 68 22 224 29.1
INC 8 8.1 28 11.6

UP Opinion Poll by Elections.in

According to the results of an opinion poll conducted by Elections.in on social media site Twitter in June 2016, the BJP would gain victory if assembly elections were to be conducted in Uttar Pradesh today. While 35.64% say the winner is going to be BJP, 27.72% say it will be Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party. In what may come as positive news for the 'Grand Old Party', as many as 28.71% feel the winner is going to be Congress. The Samajwadi Party must be worried as it got only 7.92%.

Opinion Poll of Other States
Punjab Opinion Poll 2017
Goa Opinion Poll 2017
Manipur Opinion Poll 2017
Uttarakhand Opinion Poll 2017
Gujarat Opinion Poll 2017

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