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Uttar Pradesh (UP) Opinion Poll

Media AgenciesMonthsBSPBJPSPINCOthers
ABP News-Lokniti-CSDSJan 201793-103129-139141-15113-196 - 12
India Today-AxisJan 201779-85206-21692-975 - 97 - 11
India Today-AxisOct 2016115-124170-18394-1038 - 122 - 6
India TV-CVoterAug 201695-111134-150133-1495 - 134 - 12
ABP News-LoknitiJul-Aug 2016103-113124-134141-1518 - 46 - 12
ABP News Opinion PollMarch 201618512080135

Following is a detailed break-up of the results of different opinion polls conducted by independent media agencies:

TIMES NOW-CVoter Snap Poll

PartyDec 2016
Vote Share
Jan 2017 [SP Snap Poll]
Vote Share

Latest UP Opinion Poll by India Today-Axis

On the day the Election Commission of India announced the polling schedule for five states, an opinion poll conducted by India Today-Axis from October to December 2016 has predicted a clear majority for BJP in Uttar Pradesh. The survey shows Prime Minister Narendra Modi's demonetisation drive as having a positive impact on the BJP's vote-share. Demonetisation was announced on November 8, halfway through the survey period. The survey shows the BJP's vote share increasing from 31% in October to 33% in December. In terms of seats, the survey projects 206-216 seats for BJP in the 403-member UP assembly.

PartySeat ShareVotes Share %
BSP79-85  26
Congress  5-9  6
Other7-11  9

ABP News-Lokniti CSDS Opinion Poll Uttar Pradesh

On the other hand, the ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS has predicted a close fight between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. The survey has given 141-151 seats to the Samajwadi Party, 129-139 to the BJP, 93-103 to the BSP and 13-19 to the Congress. According to 28 percent of the voters, incumbent Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav is projected to retain his seat. Bahujan Samaj Party president Mayawati is placed second in the survey results with 21 percent of the votes.
Only 3 percent of the voters picked Akhilesh Yadav’s father Mulayam Singh Yadav for the Chief Minister’s post. Voters also felt that Akhilesh's performance as Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister was better than that of Narendra Modi's performance as the prime minister, with 34 percent picking the former.

Amid the deepening feud within the Yadav clan, a whopping 86 percent of the poll respondents picked Akhilesh as their choice for Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister. Father Mulayam Singh and uncle Ram Gopal only found favour with 6 percent and 2 percent of the voters respectively. Interestingly, while support for the SP among Muslim voters appears to have fallen by 8 percentage points from August, the BJP appears to have made inroads with the community in the same time period. While the BJP is expected to bag 55 percent of the upper caste votes, the SP is expected to win 75 percent of the Yadav vote. The BSP is projected to win 74 percent votes from the Jatavs and 56 percent votes from the Dalit community.

PartySeat ShareVotes %
BSP93-103  22
Other6-12  13

India Today-Axis Opinion Poll for Uttar Pradesh

Results of the India Today-Axis Opinion Poll, published on 12 October 2016, have indicated that if elections were to be held in Uttar Pradesh today, the BJP's dream run looks set to continue in Uttar Pradesh with the party expected to win 170 to 183 seats. Nonetheless, it won't be enough to get majority in the state. A party must secure at least 202 seats to form majority in the 403-member Uttar Pradesh Assembly. The elections are likely to result in a hung Assembly, the opinion poll has revealed. It goes on predict Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is to be the runner-up with 115-124 seats. Incumbent Samajwadi Party is likely get 94 to 103 seats and sit in opposition. The Congress, which has been out of power in the state since 1989, is likely to fare miserably again, with 8 to 12 seats.

PartySeat ShareVote Shares
SP 94-10325%
Congress8 - 126%
Others2 - 610%

UP Opinion Poll Survey by VDPAssociates

(Oct, 2016)
PartySeat ShareVote Shares
SP 11127%

Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll by 'My Mandate and Pratishtha Research'

According to an opinion poll conducted by 'My Mandate and Pratishtha Research' and published on parliamentarian.in, the BSP is projected to win 169 seats in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh assembly elections and the BJP 135. The survey covered a sample of 25,000 voters in 60 assembly constituencies including all four regions of the state, that is, Avadh, Pashchim Uttar Pradesh, Bundelkhand and Purvanchal. The survey was conducted between August 10 and 27, 2016.

Current and projected seat positions as well as voting percentages for different political parties ahead of the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections.
SeatVoting Percentage
SP 224742924

Zone-wise projected positions of different political parties ahead of 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly election.
PartyPaschimAwadh BundelkhandPurvanchalTotal
SP 152523274

Uttar Pradesh Survey by India TV-CVoter

The survey was conducted between 1st and 31st August 2016, using a random stratified sample of 20,642 respondents across all 403 constituencies.
Party2012 (Actual Seat)Seat Share Projections, 2016

The survey further indicates that Akhilesh remains most desirable CM face in the state.
CM CandidateVote %
Akhilesh Yadav32.8%
Sheila Dikshit5.1%
Any BJP Leader26%
Others 7.9%

Muslim vote division survey, August 2016
PartyMuslim vote %
SP 50.2
BJP 2.7

SP ahead of BSP & BJP, INC in vein: ABP News-Lokniti CSDS Opinion Poll

In accordance to the opinion poll conducted by ABP News-Lokniti CSDS, if the 2017 UP Assembly elections are held now, then 30% of the voters would be in favor of the Samajwadi Party (SP), 27% would caste their votes for the BJP and another 26% would back the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP). Additionally, despite a rigorous campaign, the INC (Indian National Congress) is expected to settle for 5% of voters. The opinion poll was conducted between 23 July and 7 August 2016, with over 4000 people providing their insights on the forthcoming 2017 UP Assembly Elections. A key finding of this opinion poll is that both Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav and Bahujan Samajwadi Party’s Mayawati alias Behanji are indeed the people’s choice for Uttar Pradesh’s next chief minister.

PartySeatsVote %
Samajwadi Party 141-151 30

ABP News-Cicero Opinion Poll on Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2017

Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections are due early next year and all the major political contenders have already begun their preparations to clinch victory in this politically significant state. ABP News-Cicero conducted a survey among 1,000 respondents to get an estimate of the voters' mood. The survey was conducted on July 24 and 25 in 10 constituencies of the state. According to the survey results, the BJP is most likely to form the next government in the state with SP and BSP as close runners-up.

Who would form the next government in UP?
BJP 32%
Samajwadi Party 26%
BSP 24%
Congress  7%
Hung assembly 4%
Can't say  7%
*percentage not indicative of vote share

The survey further indicates that Priyanka Gandhi may not be able to brighten Congress' fortunes in the state.

Can Priyanka bring Congress back in UP?
Yes  19%
Can't say 30%

UP Opinion Poll by ABP News

(March – 2016)
In what may set off alarm bells within the ruling Samajwadi Party, an opinion poll conducted by ABP News has predicted that the main opposition party BSP would win 185 seats in the 403-member assembly if elections were held in Uttar Pradesh today. Gauging the current mood of the state’s electorate, the latest opinion poll has revealed that BSP supremo Mayawati will come back in power in the state by tying up with allies. The BSP was reduced to 80 seats in the 2012 polls but if the latest opinion polls are anything to go by, the scenario might change in the next elections.

Here’s a party-wise break-up below:
PartyActual vote % in the 2012 electionActual seats in the 2012 electionsForecast vote % as per Opinion Poll Mar 2016Forecast Seats as per Opinion Poll Mar 2016
BJP15.34224 120
IND and Others1515115

Here's a region-wise break-up below:
PartyAvadh PradeshBundelkhandPaschim PradeshPurvanchalTotal
IND and Others00235

Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll by VDPAssociates

Forecast vote % and seats
as per Opinion Poll July 2016
Actual vote % and Seats in
the 2012 election
PartySeatsVote %SeatsVote %

UP Opinion Poll by Elections.in

According to the results of an opinion poll conducted by Elections.in on social media site Twitter in June 2016, the BJP would gain victory if assembly elections were to be conducted in Uttar Pradesh today. While 35.64% say the winner is going to be BJP, 27.72% say it will be Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party. In what may come as positive news for the 'Grand Old Party', as many as 28.71% feel the winner is going to be Congress. The Samajwadi Party must be worried as it got only 7.92%.

Opinion Poll of Other States
Punjab Opinion Poll 2017
Goa Opinion Poll 2017
Manipur Opinion Poll 2017
Uttarakhand Opinion Poll 2017
Gujarat Opinion Poll 2017

UP Opinion Poll Latest News And Updates

October 13, 2016 11:06 AM
According to India Today-Axis opinion poll, the BJP's dream run looks set to continue in Uttar Pradesh with the party expected to win 170 to 183 sea..... Read More
September 12, 2016 12:52 PM
RJD supreme and former Bihar chief minister Lalu Prasad Yadav has claimed that the ruling Samajwadi Part would emerge as the winner at the 2017 asse..... Read More
September 03, 2016 12:18 PM
According to a HuffPo-CVoter survey conducted in Uttar Pradesh between 1st and 31st August via a random stratified sample of 20,642 respondents acro..... Read More
August 24, 2016 11:05 AM
According to a survey conducted by ABP News and Lokniti, the ruling Samajwadi Party looks set to beat anti-incumbency and come back to power in 2017..... Read More
August 23, 2016 11:16 AM
According to the opinion poll results surveyed by ABP News-Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), the current Chief Minister ..... Read More

Last Updated on Jan 10, 2017

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