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Will Narendra Modi Win the Lok Sabha Elections 2019 for the BJP

Posted by Aditya Singh on March 5, 2019 | Comment

lok sabha election 2019

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s chemistry with voters is unimaginable. He is far more popular than his party. After sweeping the Uttar Pradesh state election in 2017, Mr Modi was widely acclaimed as unbeatable in 2019. In 2014, Modi had swept the Hindi belt more completely than any party in history. Yet, he faces a tough battle in, what is going to be the biggest election in India till date.

 The 2019 Lok Sabha elections will be a referendum on Modi’s work as Prime Minister in the last five years. He launched many welfare schemes, repackaged some from the previous dispensation and his government has claimed on every occasion that these measures have reached more people than in any previous regime. These claims will be put to test when BJP goes to the electorate. Till now Mr Modi has worked as a one-man army who keeps himself above the party. Those close to him maintain that he is a good listener but takes his own decisions. But this time he needs to reinvent himself and show his diplomatic skills in accommodating present alliance partners and winning new friends.

 But the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s defeat in three crucial states in the last weeks of 2018 — Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh — has blown away any hopes of an easy victory for Modi. On the other hand, the Indian National Congress has made significant inroads in the three Hindi heartland states. These states account for 65 Lok Sabha seats out of which BJP won 62 in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. BJP’s tally is expected to reduce by half, on the basis of a simple juxtaposition of the state results.

 People who believe that Modi factor is intact argue that even though there was a high anti-incumbency in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where the BJP had ruled for fifteen years, the part gave a tough fight to the Congress. They also argue that Rajasthan Assembly elections were almost predictable as the state chooses between both national parties in alternate election years. It is also true that Mr Modi turned the fortunes of the party in Gujarat Assembly elections in 2017 and Karnataka Assembly elections 2018.

 Modi is BJP’s biggest hope in the 2019 Lok Sabha election and the party is banking heavily on his popularity. Even in states where the BJP lost Assembly elections, many voters still said they may vote for him in the general elections. However, the invincibility of the BJP under Modi has been shattered due to these defeats.

 BJP has lost Assembly elections in Delhi, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh post-2014. In Karnataka, a post-poll alliance between Congress and JD(S) kept BJP out of power. That the recent election defeats have been at the hands of the Congress in a direct fight is worrisome for BJP.

 As stated, Narendra Modi’s face value is greater than that of the BJP. The CSDS survey said that 27% of the people who voted for the saffron party in 2014 Lok Sabha elections would not have voted them if Mr Modi would not have been PM candidate. The recently surveyed Times Mega Opinion Poll said that 83% of the people will vote for Modi in Lok Sabha elections. This suggests that although Rahul Gandhi’s popularity is increasing constantly but Modi is still at the highest pedestal.