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BSP – Elephant’s Hunger for Seats is too much for Parties to Feed

Posted by Kumar Utkarsh on October 12, 2018 | Comment

Mayawati Hungry For Seats

Confidence and over confidence are two very common terms and are applicable everywhere and for everyone. These days Mayawati’s way of negotiation with Congress and other parties is full with over confidence. In this article I would like to highlight some of the reasons why BSP is so aggressive in negotiations even though their number of seats have gone down in past Lok Sabha as well as in UP assembly elections.

Reason 1: BSP didn’t lose that much in votes but they did substantially in seats.

In 2017 BSP won 4.7% seats, with 22.2% of votes whereas in 2012 BSP got 19.8% seats with 25.9% of votes in 2012.

Some said that they were unlucky, some mentioned it a perfect strategy of BJP but truth is that BSP still holds a strong chunk of Dalits and other minorities. Now before elections it looks like that Mayawati has realized that the negotiations will be based on the decline in votes and not seats as she would not be so unlucky every time.

However, the alliance with Samajwadi party looks very superficial till the very last moment i.e. till the allocation of seats is not finalized.

Reason 2: BSP wants to make its National Party image stronger

Not only Uttar Pradesh, BSP is trying to leverage other North Indian states to make its National Party image stronger and with a soft corner approach in negotiations it will not be possible.

But the point is that this approach might work with some regional parties but why would another National Party like Congress would agree to this even though they are facing toughest time in last 70 years.

Reason 3: Opportunity to become Leader of the Third front

Talks for Maha-gatbandhan are alive and everyone is looking for a face to lead this collation. Now getting a personality like Atal Bihari Bajpai – who had a lot of opponents but no enemies – is nearly impossible in todays political scenario, hence the face of the Leader can only be finalized after the elections depending on the seats any party wins.

So, the aggressive approach will help Mayawati in Lok Sabha elections more than in Assembly elections in five states considering 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh.

Reason 4: A small break in Upper caste vote will do the trick

BSP self-belief is that its vote bank is loyal and will not get diverted to other parties. On the other hand if it manages to get some support from other parties it will gain maximum seats in Uttar Pradesh.

As an alternate strategy, BSP is also trying to change its strategy towards upper castes including Brahmins.

Having said that the final permutations and combinations will depend on how BJP responds closer to elections.

Final comments – Even though BSP wants to be on the driving seat of the opposition, it looks very far from reality.