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If the polling remains close to the 2014 figure, the 2014 result is likely to be repeated. It needs to be kept in mind that the current polling percentage difference between NDA and UPA on the basis of past 5 years’ data is more than 10%. In this area, it is even higher. With 15% plus difference, there is hardly a passage for the UPA. I give NDA 17/17, in spite of close contests in Shirur, Maval, Nandurbar and Dhule. Maval is going to be the contest to watch. Between Parth Pawar, son of Ajit Pawar and Shrirang Barne, the contest is going to be really close. 16/17 to NDA. Giving Maval to Parth of NCP at this point
Rajasthan is also witnessing wave-like conditions. In this round of 13 seats, Barmer is the only challenge before BJP, though the chances are that this challenge would also be overcome tomorrow. However, we will put it at 12/13 and revisit after the poll.
The 6 seats of Vindhya and South-East MP are flowing along predictable lines. Chhindwara will be won by congress, but Kamal Nath is facing challenges because his image has taken a hit after he became CM. 5/6 to BJP
BJP has successfully negotiated the MY territory without much damage. Now we enter into the MBC-UC territory which is a stronghold of BJP. Kannauj is symptomatic of what the condition of SP-BSP combo is. Akhilesh is doing in Kannauj what Ashok Gehlot is doing in Jodhpur. This phase will also show whether BSP will survive as an entity, as it is set to do badly even in the reserved seats of Shahjahanpur, Hardoi and Misrikh. It is here that you have to laud the foresight of Amit Shah in getting Hardoi strongman Naresh Agarwal to BJP. He is proving to be an invaluable asset in keeping Hardoi and Misrikh with BJP. The Yadav population is not voting for BSP. this will be made clear by the behaviour of Yadavs in Tilhar and Jalalabad. Yadavs did not vote for Jitin Prasad in the Assembly elections when SP was in alliance with Congress. Bundelkhand and neighbouring areas of Kanpur and Unnao are very difficult for MGB, and there is no way they can win a seat here if they failed to win more than 8 in the MYJ area. So I give 12/13 to BJP.
Now the election has come into less than 25% Muslim territory. It is a stronghold of the social combine of BJP+JDU. In UPA, RJD is contesting 2 seats, INC 2 & RLSP 1. In NDA, JDU and BJP are contesting 2 seats each and LJP is contesting 1. 5-0 for NDA; BJP-2, JDU-2 and LJP 1
This area is not a stronghold of the local tribal parties. BJP should score 3-0
Kendrapara is a high voltage contest with Baijayant Jay Panda as the central figure. He should win easily in spite of Naveen Patnaik making it his prestige issue. Bhadrak and Mayurbhanj should also go to BJP, the other three to BJD. So 3-3.
WB is also witnessing a wave for BJP, but the strong TMC cadre is resorting to strong-arm tactics to deter BJP supporters from voting. Ranaghat had seen unprecedented crowds for a Modi rally. Ranaghat, Krishnanagar, Asansol and Bolpur are clearly for BJP. The 2 Bardhaman seats are in a tight contest. I will play safe and put it at 4-4 due to the strong TMC cadre strength.