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Chintamani – 5Dots Opinion Poll for Third Phase

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The first two phases of the Lok Sabha elections 2019 are over with no less than 70% voter turnout (as declared by the Election Commission when polling for second phase was over. In the third phase on Tuesday, voters across 11 states and two Union Territories will cast their ballots for 115 seats—the maximum number of Parliamentary constituencies going to vote in a single phase—to choose from more than 1,600 candidates. Voting in Anantnag in Jammu and Kashmir will undergo in three phases.

Details of seats in each state that will poll in the third phase:

11 States

Assam (4 Seats), Bihar (5 Seats), Chhattisgarh (7 Seats), Goa (2 Seats), Gujarat (26 Seats), Jammu and Kashmir (First of the three phase voting in Anantnag), Karnataka (14 Seats), Kerala (20 Seats), Maharashtra (14 Seats), Odisha (6 Seats), Rajasthan (13 Seats), Tripura (1 Seat- Tripura East), Uttar Pradesh (10 Seats) and West Bengal (5 Seats)

Two Union Territories

Daman and Diu (1 Seat) and Dadra and Nagar Haveli (1 Seat)

Our Election expert and popular psephologist Chintamani is back once again with interesting numbers focusing on two states of South India. With rational and scientific methods, our expert carried out a survey to determine the mood of the voters in the third phase.

Out of the 116 seats (including Anantnag), the BJP may get 63 seats. Its allies like Shiv Sena and BPF can add up to ten seats to the NDA tally. The Samajwadi Party may get 5 seats. AIUDF can get 2 seats, TMC 4, BJD 3, NCP 3, RJD 1, and others in UPA 3.

NDA: 73 UPA: 25 Others: 18

Karnataka

The problem with the alliance of JD(S) and Congress in Karnataka is that it has almost the same voter base in southern Karnataka. This equation helped them giving a stiff fight in 14 seats of southern Karnataka that went on to polling in the last phase on April 18. The Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) is in a lot stronger position in the northern region of the state.

The saffron party was able to win 11 out of these 14 seats in 2014 Lok Sabha election. According to our Election expert’s calculations, the BJP will be able to retain all the seats that it won it last elections. The trends suggest that the party will also be able to snatch Gulbarga seat from the Congress increasing its tally to 12 this time. The Congress has once again fielded its senior leader Mallikarjuna Kharge from Gulbarga who has won this seat twice. The BJP has Dr. Umesh G. jadhav from the seat this time.

Kerala

The God’s own country will be voting for all 20 seats of the state in a single phase on April 23. In 2014, the BJP was polled with 10.33% without winning a seat. However, it is projected that the protests and sentiments that rose after the Supreme Court upheld the entry of women into the shrine of Lord Ayyappa will help garner support for the BJP. The BJP will gain heavily in terms of vote share at the expense of the Left Democratic Alliance (LDF).

While the Congress led-United Democratic Front (UDF) managed to win 12 seats in 2014 whereas the LDF could only get 8 seats. This time the UDF is expected to win 16 seats with the Congress winning 13 seats. CPM may win 3-4 seats.

Maharashtra

The 14 seats that are going for polling on third phase tomorrow are distributed 8:6 between BJP and Shiv Sena. Aurangabad, Raigad, Sindhudurg-Ratnagiri, Satara, Kolhapur and Hatakanangle were given to Shiv Sena and the rest to BJP. The NCP should retain Baramati and Madha. Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule is the sitting MP from Baramati. The Shiv Sena is having a tough time in Aurangabad, but should scrape through only due to the AIMIM. The NCP will win Satara too.

The BJP is expected to win 6 seats whereas Shiv Sena will get 5, making the NDA tally to 11 out 14 seats. The NCP is getting rest of the three seats. Congress can do nothing much.

Chhattisgarh

The Assembly elections in Chhattisgarh last year were swept by the Congress but the state is having a resurgence of BJP due to Modi factor. The BJP should win Surguja, Bilaspur, Raipur and Durg, and be in a tight contest in Raipur. The BJP is expected to bag 4 out of seven seats. Congress will get the rest 3 seats.

Odisha

Odisha will vote for 6 seats in the third phase. The BJD is finding it tough in all the seats where situation is changing on a daily-basis. As of today, BJP is ahead in Puri, Dhenkanal and Sambalpur whereas Bhubaneswar and Keonjhar are in a tight position. Sambalpur looks safe for BJD.

The BJP and the BJD can bag three seats each.

West Bengal

The BJP is well ahead of TMC in Balurghat. According to the trends, the TMC should unseat Congress and CPM in the other four. The BJP will get one seat of Balurghat out of the five seats voting on Tuesday.

Assam

Out of the 4 seats of the state that are voting in the third phase, the BJP may get one. The saffron party has a strong hand on Guwahati whereas Kokrajhar should go to BPF of NDA. The other two seats can be bagged by AIUDF.

Tripura

Like Tripura West parliamentary constituency, Tripura East is also going to the saffron party.

Gujarat

All of the seats of the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi will cast its ballot on Tuesady. Last general elections, the saffron party swept the whole state winning all 26 seats. Gujarat is back in the grip of Modi wave. Patel and Thakore agitations have fizzled out after 10% reservation to general class. Amreli and Anand are the only 2 seats where the margin will be less than a lakh. It is 26/26 again.

Uttar Pradesh

This is the strongest round for the Mahagathbandhan, but the youth factor is hampering smooth vote transfer between SP and BSP. However, high Muslim population seats like Rampur and Sambhal are safe with the Grand Alliance. Moradabad is a toss-up. Budaun and Firozabad are no longer safe for SP and are in a tossup situation too. Mainpuri is safe for the Mahagathbandhan as it is the Samajwadi Party patron Mulayam Singh Yadav’s seat. Pilibhit, Bareilly and Aonla are safe for BJP. Our election expert puts it at 5 seats for MGB and BJP each, none to Congress.

Goa

The saffron party was already winning both the seats in the coastal state of Goa. It will get sympathy votes additionally after the death of its veteran leader and former Chief Minister Manohar Parikkar.

Bihar

JDU is ahead in Supaul, Madhepura and Jhanjharpur. LJP is ahead in Khagaria. BJP is trailing in the only seat it is contesting in this round which is expected to go to the RJD. So, the NDA can get 4 and RJD 1.

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