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The Unpredictability of Exit Polls in Bihar Election

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The Bihar Election 2020 Exit Polls have failed to give a uniform prediction about the winner. This means that the actual Bihar Election Result 2020 can swing in any direction. In the 2015 Bihar Election as well, the Exit Polls had failed.

Moreover, there is a possibility that the voters of Bihar might not give an honest answer to who they have voted for after exiting the polling station. There might be many reasons why the exit polls do not give an accurate picture of Bihar Election 2020. However, one should be ready for unexpected results on the 10 November.

When Did the Exit Polls go Wrong

For the sake of the current situation, the first example that props up is that of Bihar Election 2015. Exit Polls conducted by various agencies for Bihar Election 2015 also had mixed predictions.

Some exit polls had projected a hung assembly, few of them gave an edge to the NDA alliance. While some also indicated hung assembly by giving almost equal seats to the MGB and NDA. However, on the day of the result, actual numbers took everyone aback when Grand Alliance had a thumping majority of 178 seats. While the NDA was reduced to zero.

There was one exit poll that had collected accurate projections but was not published since it had a tremendous deviation from exit polls.

Similarly, Delhi Election Exit Polls had gone wrong in 2015. There was marginal gain predicted for AAP. On the other hand, AAP got 67 seats out of 70 when the actual results came. Moreover, the Exit Polls have also given misleading projections in the 2004 and 2008 Lok Sabha elections.

The Exit Polls may find it difficult to gauge the mood of the voters when there is a massive division of opinions amongst voters. In the case of Bihar Election 2020, the Biharis were disappointed with Nitish Kumar. Regardless, they were supporting Narendra Modi which can swing the election result.

The Reasons why Bihar Exit Polls go Wrong

One of the significant reasons might be because Bihar compared to other states is a bit backward. The people of Bihar may find it difficult to voice their honest answers as soon as they come out of polling booths.

Just like the Bihar election 2020, all the other elections of Bihar had caste as a crucial parameter. The voters that come from Dalit or Mahadalit category may find it difficult to reveal their vote to the pollsters fearing persecution from other castes.

One should also consider the difference between the opinion poll and the Exit polls. It suggests that voters might have switched their choice many times in Bihar Election 2020. Only the Bihar Election 2020 result on 10 November would reveal the fate of parties.

Stay tuned with elections.in for updates related to Bihar Election 2020 result on Tuesday, 10 November.

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