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Analysis: Compared to Rivals, BJP’s Bihar Vote Share Swelled from 2005

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Bihar is a state where the calculations of caste arithmetic and vote share hold tremendous importance for the political parties. Moreover, it can make or break the Bihar election result. An analysis of the vote share of parties from 2005 has revealed that BJP is the only national party that has achieved double digits in terms of vote share.

BJP’s vote share in the Bihar election 2015 was 24.42%. Except for Congress, all other national parties experienced a decline in their vote share. Moreover, the increase in the vote share of Congress was marginal from 5% (Feb 2005) to 8.37% (2010).

BJP Almost Doubled its Vote Share

Bharatiya Janata Party had contested 103 seats in the Bihar Election (February) 2005, it had a vote share of 10.97%. Whereas the party increased the seats to 157 in the Bihar Election 2015 and secured a vote share of 24.4%. Thereby witnessing a surge of 45% in its vote share.

Also, BJP had contested the Bihar Election 2015 when it was fighting against JDU. In spite of this, BJP emerged as the largest party in terms of vote share.

It can be argued that the vote share of BJP has increased since it is contesting more seats in Bihar Election. However, the other parties also have been contesting more seats, but with a declined vote share.

Amongst the national parties, BSP has contested more than 200 seats for every Bihar Election. Yet, its vote share went downwards from 4.41% (Feb 2005) to 2.10% (2015). NCP fielded candidates on 31 seats in February 2005 and 40 seats in 2015. In spite of this, its vote share in (February) 2005 and 2015 was 0.98% and 0.50% respectively.

Congress contested all 243 seats in 2010 getting a vote share of 8.38%. Which was reduced to 6.7% in 2015 as it fielded 41 candidates.

The Left and Regional Parties

CPI’s vote share stood at 1.58% in 2005 and went down to 1.4% in Bihar Election 2015. In the case of CPM, it was between 0.64% and 0.6% from 2005 to 2015.

As far as the regional parties are concerned, RJD had a 25.07% vote share in Feb 2005 and 18.4% in the Bihar Election 2015. The vote share of JDU increased from 14.55% to 16.8% in the year 2005 and 2015 respectively. In addition to this, LJP got 12.62% vote in February 2005 Bihar election which drastically reduced to 4.8% in Bihar Election 2015.

It remains to see if BJP will be able to set a new benchmark for itself in the Bihar Election 2020.

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