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WILL CHHATTISGARH PERFORMANCE SWING MADHYA PRADESH BJP WAY? – Chintamani Shastri

Posted by Admin on November 22, 2018 | Comment

WILL CHHATTISGARH PERFORMANCE SWING MADHYA PRADESH BJP WAY? – Chintamani Shastri 5.00/5 (100.00%) 2 votes

WILL CHHATTISGARH PERFORMANCE SWING MADHYA PRADESH BJP WAY

MADHYA PRADESH BJP WAY – The curtain has come down on the polling in Chhattisgarh. By all accounts, BJP seems to be sweeping the State. That is a superlative performance, considering that BJP has been in power for 15 years on the trot.

In the first phase which covered the Naxal affected areas of Bastar and Rajnandgaon, comprising such deeply held Naxal districts as Sukma, Dantewada and Narayanpur; BJP performance was nothing short of spectacular. In this round of 18 constituencies, BJP had got only 6 seats in 2013. The polling in this area was very high this time as the Naxal menace is well contained. Even though they tried to indulge in heightened sabotage, Naxals could not deter high voting. The government deserves great kudos for this.

In the first round, it looks like our opinion poll projection of 12/18 for BJP could easily be achieved. In the second phase of  72 constituencies, BJP had got 43 seats last time around. This is also the area where Ajit Jogi and BSP seemed to be strong as well. It does appear after above 72% polling in the 2nd phase that Electoins.in opinion poll about Chhattisgarh would come out to be correct. 

The big question is how this result would impact the MP results, if at all. Historically, the Vindhya (30 seats) and Mahakoshal (38 seats) areas of MP bordering Chhattisgarh have voted along similar lines. In our opinion poll, we had predicted a 130-80 advantage for BJP over Congress. Chhindwara is a Kamal Nath stronghold, but other than Chhindwara, all other districts in Mahakoshal – Katni, Jabalpur, Mandla, Seoni and Balaghat seem to be going the BJP way. Chambal area (34 seats) was always going to be tricky for BJP. Except for Gwalior, Bhind and Morena, all other districts – Datia, Shivpuri, Guna and Sheopur are strong Congress areas. Malwa (50 seats), Madhya Bharat (36 seats), and Nimad (16 seats) have always been BJP strongholds. In Ratlam and Jhabua, BJP is set to lose a few seats, but Mandsaur and Neemach do not seem to be impacted so much in spite of the Kisan Andolan led by Rahul himself. Madhya Bharat area around Bhopal does not seem to be leaning in favour of Congress either. However, we do not see much impact of BSP and others either. So Congress may pick up around 10 more seats compared to the opinion poll.

 

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