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What would be a more painful for BJP – A loss in Rajasthan or Madhya Pradesh?

Posted by Admin on November 26, 2018 | Comment

What would be a more painful for BJP-A loss in Rajasthan or Madhya Pradesh

I started with an aim to compare the value BJP would associate with winning  elections in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Within a couple of sentences and after analysing the ground sentiment in both the states I realised the futility of such an attempt. So instead I thought of writing about why there wasn’t a comparison at all with Madhya Pradesh being a clear winner in terms of its electoral importance for the BJP.

When it comes to the number of seats up for grabs, Madhya Pradesh isn’t a mile ahead of Rajasthan but the value proposition offered by both the states is quite different. The recent by-polls in Rajasthan which BJP lost were abuzz with the slogan “मोदी तुझसे बैर नहीं, रानी तेरी खैर नहीं”. These elections where CM Raje had herself campaigned extensively may have been a bummer for BJP, but may have also presented them with a face saver. BJP wouldn’t feel bad in attributing this loss and the possible loss in the upcoming assembly elections to the personal anti-incumbency against CM Raje. To add to this Rajasthan does have a reputation of changing Governments every five years, so a loss in Rajasthan wouldn’t exactly spell doomsday for BJP, Whereas, the same won’t be true for Madhya Pradesh, which in fact could dictate the sentiment leading up to the general elections in 2019.

When it comes to losing a state the worst loss for BJP would be if they were to lose a state and their image of “The Hindu” party in doing so. I don’t really see that happening in Rajasthan since a loss in Rajasthan wouldn’t directly impact the core Hindu wave that BJP is surfing on, but a loss in Madhya Pradesh would be different.

When it comes to Madhya Pradesh the situation is different, not only is Madhya Pradesh India’s geographical centre but in political terms it could very well be the centre of the cow belt which has proved to be BJP’s strong hold in the past. CM Shivraj Chauhan has tried hard to maintain his pro development and pro Hindu image over the years and a loss in Madhya Pradesh could be portrayed by the opposition as a dent to BJP’s acceptance as a party representing development and Hindus.

I had in a previous article mentioned Mr Rahul Gandhi’s newly found love for Lord Shiva, the Congress manifesto in Madhya Pradesh rightly backs this love and the pro Hindu branding by including making of cow shelters as a poll promise in its election manifesto. This re-branding by congress and the recent upsurge of religious leaders voicing their concerns against the BJP could have been the reason why BJP seems to be anxious in Madhya Pradesh. This anxiety is evident by the way Yogi Adityanath, and PM Modi alike have gone all out against Rahul Gandhi and his attempt to brand himself as a pro Hindu leader and also shows the importance BJP associates with Madhya Pradesh.

To sum it up, a loss in MP weather owed to incumbency or anger against certain specific policies would invariably be associated with a decline in BJP’s share in the Hindu vote bank and in their hearts too and thus makes it a much bigger prize compared to Rajasthan.