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Can the Mahagathbandhan Defeat the BJP in Upcoming Lok Sabha Elections 2019?

Posted by Admin on February 25, 2019 | Comment

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lok sabha election 2019

The Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) understands the potential threat that the Great Alliance poses in the run-up to the upcoming Lok Sabha election. While, on one hand, the Opposition leaders have tried to stitch together an anti-BJP front, whereas, on the other hand, the BJP launched a scathing attack on the alliance. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, from various platforms, has attacked the alliance terming it Mahamilavat.

 There is no denying the fact that Mahagathbandhan is a conglomeration of vulnerable parties who have united against a stronger common enemy, the BJP. But the biggest question remains: can it repeat the success that the Janta Party achieved in 1977 Lok Sabha election defeating the mammoth Congress.

 It is also undeniable that 2019 is also a year of the alliance. However, this time the BJP has replaced the Congress as the mammoth party. In what seemed like a first coming together of the Opposition, more than a dozen leaders reached Bengaluru to attend the swearing-in ceremony of Karnataka CM Kumaraswamy in May last year after the Karnataka Assembly elections.

 Although, the opposition leaders have appeared together on various occasions they had failed to form a national level pre-poll alliance for the Lok Sabha elections. Buoyed by the Congress’ win in the three Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, Rahul Gandhi hopped in a bus with several opposition leaders as they together attended the swearing-in ceremonies in the three states. Various such leaders also came to support of West Bengal Chief Minister Mamta Banerjee’s Hunger strike in Kolkata and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu’s strike in New Delhi.

 Yet, the opposition parties have been successful in forming regional alliance suiting to the local political arithmetics. State-based alliances bank on the aggregate of the fragmented vote-share of the different parties and thus, such alliances can prove to be a potential contender against the BJP.

Uttar Pradesh

The SP-BSP-RLD mahagathbandhan is in stiff competition with the BJP in the largest state. Although, Congress is not part of the alliance they have been left with constituencies of Rae Bareli and Amethi. The BSP will contest on 38, the SP on 37 and the RLD on 3 Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha elections 2019 seats.

Bihar

 According to sources, the Bihar Mahagathbandhan stakeholders which includes Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Rashtriya Lok Samta Dal (RLSD), Loktantrik Janta Dal (LJD) and HAM are not just discussing seat sharing but also a united “grassroots-level” campaign to take on ruling Janata Dal (United)-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Jharkhand

 The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), Jharkhand Vikas Morcha- Prajatantrik (JVM-P) and Rashtriya Janta Dal have joined hands with the Congress in the state. The parties have already finalised the seat-sharing agreement for the 14 Jharkhand Lok Sabha elections 2019 seats. The agreement gives seven seats to the Congress, four to the JMM, two to the JVP and one to the RJD.

 Tamil Nadu

The Congress and the DMK have finalised the alliance for 39 Tamil Nadu Lok Sabha elections 2019 seats and a lone Pondicherry Lok Sabha elections 2019 seats. Congress would get nine seats and Pondicherry seat. The BJP has also formed an alliance with AIADMK and PMK.

Even as many anti-BJP parties are preparing for a solo fight in their states for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu is still hopeful of an alliance between “secular” parties before the elections, due by May. He said a grand alliance between the Congress, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool and Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP and his party may still come into existence.

The chance of Mahagathbandhan forming is elusive, though not improbable. The effect of Mahagathbandhan will be proportional to its potency or the strength of its constituents. The strength of Mahagathbandhan is in UP, Haryana, West Bengal, and Jharkhand. If SP, BSP, TMC abstain from the Grand Alliance, it will not make much of an impact on the people. Maybe it will fizzle out or too weak to call itself an alternative to NDA for the upcoming election in India.

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