Twitter Handle – @Suyash75
2019-05-08 – 1:52:01 PM
Now it is an increasingly plausible scenario that BJP is getting absolute majority on it is own, up from 260-265 levels a month back, a thread dedicated to what went right for BJP, which faced embarrassing defeats in 3 Hindi heartland states against ‘weak’ Congress, months ago.
Major reasons why BJP was slipping ground: 1. Draconian SC/ST act hurt core constituency 2. Traders were angry with GST (NOT with Demonization) 3. Middle class was fed up 4. Pro Hindu voices disenchanted 5. Raga setting narrative Only bright side was socialist schemes for Modi.
As a knee jerk reaction, the 1st thing BJP did was to get UC reservation of 10%, which despite a token, was good enough to pacify angry UC support let’s who had deserted BJP and brought them back. Ofcourse some Nawabi and slave UCs continue to support Congress as ever before
Next it targeted to who where pacified, not to a great extent but enough to swing them back. The new e-commerce laws aimed to balance the undue power, online players were enjoying plus easing some norms of GST. Plus they were informed of the other option who would be extortionist
The 3rd in line was Middle class. Despite being a lame duck budget, interim Finance Minister stole the show, when for the 1st time any FM thanked the honest tax payers and productive classes and announced lower tax slabs for lower middle class. And boom
For Pro Hindu, Pakistan (possibly in connivance with internal hostile powers) ensured Pulwama to puncture Modi’s narrative of strong stand against terror but the retaliation was heavy. Balakot airstrikes created equivalent (not equal) charge in pro Hindu voters as Ram Mandir
All of it led to setting narrative. Media management of Modi in 2019 has been oar excellence, better than even 2014. Started interviews with English channels when southern states were poll bound. Moved to ABP (Majha and Ananda), then to Ask Tak, India TV and Z news for Hindi belt
And finally the socialist schemes Housing Yojna, to Ujjwala Yojna, toilet Yojna and many others created a new constituency of voters. This in addition to the fact that Modi was able to bring back all 4 sets of disgruntled voters to his fold. So the new ones acted as a top up
Bottomline, this time Modi led BJP will get significantly higher number of votes. Atleast 3-4% higher than 2014 and may be higher seat counts as well. The base case scenario is 250 and might as well breach 300 seats.
2019-05-04 – 8:55:57 PM
#ModiOnIndiaTV will have much bigger impact than his interview with Akshay Kumar. India TV has major viewership in North India and tonight’s interview is going to break all TRP records. #BiggerWaveThan2014
2019-05-03 – 1:58:35 PM
Arshad Khan is fictional name of the voter and the real name is ‘Shivam Vij’.
Vij fudged a news report to produce his own opinions as voters mood.
See the language, ‘Dadri’, ‘intolerance’, ‘pretence of being moderate’. Would subaltern Muslim use it?https://t.co/zQA26i6wvW
— Suyash Bharadwaj (@Suyash75) May 3, 2019
2019-05-02 – 8:48:56 PM
Got info from a few Journalists of an leading Hindi daily. As per them BJP figures: UP 50+ Gujarat 23+ Rajasthan 20+ Bihar 16+ West Bengal 15+ Chhattisgarh 4+ Overall BJP alone 260+ It seems game over for Congress and its sick allies. NYAY has been a BIG DISASTER
2019-05-01 – 11:29:36 PM
Modi added 5 more rallies for West Bengal before 5th phase. He senses huge churn there. Reason why I am so bullish on WB is also because my friend from Jangipur (near Malda) says there is huge anger wave against Mamta and BJP could win 30+ if no rigging is done, 15-20 otherwise
2019-05-01 – 7:29:46 PM
@GautamGambhir Stop being humble & humane. Just a positive vision won’t help. You are fighting dirty pigs. Inorder to defeat @AtishiAAP whose family celebrated death of Kargil martyrs & raised funds for terrorists like Afzal Guru, you need to get into mud and respond in kind
2019-05-01 – 7:25:36 PM
The way Kejriwal has sacrificed 6 Delhi candidates in Delhi to the extent of them losing deposits just to support Naxalite Atishi Marlena is stunning. Just like Desh Drohi Naxal Kanahiiya, she is getting unprecedented support from Media, celebrities etc. Absolutely stunning!
2019-05-01 – 7:24:54 PM
सपा-बसपा को लगा झटका, वाराणसी से मोदी के खिलाफ तेज बहादुर की उम्मीदवारी रद्द | This is what happens when you field disgraced ISI rats for elections in India.
2019-05-01 – 7:23:55 PM
Varanasi opposition mayhem so far in 2019 BSP – Vijay Jaiswal flipped to BJP and avoids nomination Congress – Priyanka Vadra chickens out sensing heavy defeat of 5 Lakh plus margins AAP – Kejriwal Bowed out before the battle SP – 1 candidate scared, another disqualified
2019-05-01 – 11:39:13 AM
Outside UP, WB , Orissa
Rest all same Net loss of 10 seats.
How’s it 80%? 210 becomes 200 + UP (52) + WB (12) + Ods (15) Total 275-285 as of now
BJP won 210 outside of UP. If BjP wins 80 per cent of these (168) and if BJP gets 35 in UP. One can’t blame people. So that adds to 203. Now question is how much can BjP win in Bengal and Orissa. If BjP wins only 10 in these states then Modi gets to 213 which can become a problem
— Realist_Indian (@India_Progress) May 1, 2019
2019-04-30 – 11:24:02 PM
I don’t do seat by seat analysis usually, but for 5 high profile seats.
Varanasi – Modi ~5 lakh votes
Amethi – Smriti ahead unless last minute deal of BJP top leadership with Raga
Kannauj – BJP with slender margin
Begusarai – BJP with decent margin
Azamgarh – Dead heat, SP ahead
2019-04-30 – 9:44:38 PM
1. Balakot airstrikes have made huge impact in UP, along with Haryana, Bihar and Rajasthan
2. Congress gamble to field Priyanka Vadra hasn’t paid off and party is likely to win only 2 seats of Rae Bareilly and Saharanpur
3. Yogi is popular but needs to do a Lot more
4. Gathbandhan is transferring vote to each other, contrary to what a few experts claimed
5. However even their combined strength may not be enough, which means UP is the be BJP stronghold state with 3 likely bumper wins in a row
6. BJP may get more votes than 2014
2019-04-30 – 9:25:44 PM
Andhra Pradesh Assembly Elections forecast 2019
YSRCP 101 (44%)
TDP 52 (32%)
JS 18 (14%)
Congress 3 (4%)
BJP 1 (3%)
Jagan Reddy all set to be next CM.
TDP’s 2 lakh offer may not be popular as it is the incumbent party and this may be passed as election Jumla
2019-04-30 – 9:19:55 PM
Chhattisgarh forecast for 2019 Congress 10 (45%) BJP 1 (41%) Aside Kerala, Chhattisgarh is the only state where Congress is expected to sweep & get in double digits. No anger against Modi but people are against Local BJP. NYAY scheme of Rahul Gandhi has impacted here the most.
2019-04-30 – 9:16:57 PM
East India Seat projection for 2019 Lok Sabha Elections NDA – 86 (BJP 61, JDU 14, LJP 4, AGP 1, BPF 1, AJSU 1, NPP 1, NDPP 1, MNF 1, SDF 1) UPA – 18 (Congress 10, RJD 4, JMM 2, JVM 1, AIUDF 1) Others – 38 (TMC 32, BJD 6) Congress led UPA’s sun all set to set in the East!
2019-04-30 – 9:16:57 PM
West Bengal forecast for 2019 TMC 32 (42%) BJP 8 (35%) Congress 2 (7%) CPM 0 (10%) A shady candidate selection by BJP and chickening out of BJP top leadership has made dictatorial Mamta Banerjee a primal force and BJP lost out on winning atleast 15-20 seats in West Bengal.
2019-04-30 – 9:16:28 PM
Orissa forecast for 2019 BJP 15 (44%) BJD 6 (37%) Modi wave seems to engulf Orissa in all certainty. Helped by 2 decades of BJD incumbency and organizational growth of BJP in last 3 years, BJP is all set to surprise everyone with a haul of 15 seats.
2019-04-30 – 5:18:22 PM
Smriti Irani ahead in Amethi as of now with thin margin of 30k votes. Not sure why Rajnath Singh committing harakiri by summoning Rahul Gandhi for his Italian citizenship, 4 years later, with no possiblity of him losing Indian citizenship, which will only help him gain sympathy
2019-04-30 – 4:40:47 PM
I am calling Krishnanagar Asansol Ranaghat Birbhum For BJP So total 9/18 so far. Anyone from Birbhum who can confirm if the booth capturing by TMC Gundas was to what extent? That would determine if at all BJP has some chance.
2019-04-30 – 3:41:55 PM
Almost everyone I have interacted in Bombay, said he/she took 2-3 hours to vote. Why isn’t the turnout reflecting that? Something seems amiss. Bombay should be crossing 48% turnout for sure. @Suyash75
2019-04-30 – 3:41:19 PM
I think a number of states today where BJP+allies is going to win every single seat going to poll in this phase. In others too, the strike rate would be pretty good, including West Bengal, despite TMC’s booth capturing, open gundagardi and voters intimidation. @Suyash75