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Lok Sabha 2019 Elections – the battle has already begun and parties are pushing hard to convert the rally crowd into votes.
One common theme of these elections is Modi vs All other parties. Few might say that the recent loss in assembly elections has shifted the momentum however the ground reality is that Narendra Modi is the biggest and most popular national leader in India. Despite this, it’s the caste combination that plays a crucial role in the conversion of seats.
In Lok Sabha Elections 2019 all eyes are on Uttar Pradesh because of Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party collation. Uttar Pradesh has a total of 80 Lok Sabha seats out of which BJP secured 72 in 2014 Lok Sabha Elections and made their path smooth to the parliament. The voting shares in Uttar Pradesh were
|Name of Party||Alliance||Vote Share %||Vote share after collation in 2019|
|Bhartiya Janata Party||National Democratic Alliance||42.30||42.30|
|Samajwadi Party||Third Front||22.20||41.80|
|Bahujan Samaj Party||–||19.60|
|Indian National Congress||United Progressive Alliance||7.50||7.50|
Now the challenge for BJP is in voting share they still have an edge but the difference is so less that the breakup of the voting share in different constituencies can cause a loss of more than 50 seats, let me explain you with what happened to BSP in previous elections.
|Year||BSP Poll percentage||Vote Share % change||Seats Won|
With a growth of 16% in vote share from 5.33% to 6.17%, BSP managed to get 21 seats however in next elections with a loss of 20% vote share from 2004 to 4.20 they had a loss of 21 seats which is massive. Ideally, it shouldn’t have been the case considering that they were the third largest party in the country as per the vote shares but had no seats.
This time if similar permutation and combination happened against BJP then they are expected to take a hit of more 50 seats in Uttar Pradesh alone. The only good things happened to BJP is that Congress has refused to join the collation with SP and BSP which will help BJP in some way. So basically where ever Congress will perform well BJP will have better chances of winning.
The loss of BJP is very hard to fill for BJP as they already won 100% seats in more than 10 states and there is no scope of gaining seats there. The only big scope of adding seats according to political pundits is in Orrisa and West Bengal. So, it becomes very hard and crucial for Narendra Modi to keep his fort in Uttar Pradesh which will be a very tough task considering the collation.