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West Bengal (WB) Exit Poll 2016

May 16, 2016

West Bengal (WB) Election 2016 Exit Poll

Pollsters TMC Left+ INC BJP Others
Elections.in 125 155 6 8
CVoter 167 120 4 3
India Today-Axis 243 44 4 3
Chanakya 210 70 14
ABP 163 126 1 4
NDTV 184 103 5 2
News Nation 153 181

The West Bengal Assembly elections were held in six phases in 294 constituencies of the state. Almost all opinion polls say that Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is coming back to power. Elections.in , however, predicts that the Left Front-Congress alliance may emerge the winner and hold back Mamata.

Summary of West Bengal (WB) Assembly Election 2016 Opinion Poll

(March-2016 Projection)
Party/Alliance Elections.in India TV-C Voter ABP-Neilsen News Nation ETV Bangla
TMC 190 160 178 165 201
CPM+ 100 127 110 125 64
BJP 2 4 1 1 0
Other 2 3 5 3 0
Total Seats 294 294 294 294 266

Prannoy Roy’s Analysis of West Bengal Polls

According to an analysis by renowned Journalist Prannoy Roy who is an expert in election coverage, the Trinamool Congress has 60% chance of coming back to power in West Bengal. The Left-Congress combine has 40% chance of winning. The analysis points out that a swing of 3% votes could change the outcome of the elections. Roy’s analysis is based on historical data and current alliances.

West Bengal Assembly elections: India TV-CVoter opinion poll predicts victory for TMC

The recently released India TV-CVoter opinion polls for West Bengal elections has indicated that the  Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) will retain power in the state although the Left Front is likely to make a significant gain in vote share. The alliance with the Left is unlikely to help the Congress as the party is expected to bag 21 seats, which is much less than the 106 seats predicted from the CPI (M). The TMC is projected to get 160 seats while the BJP is unlikely to win in more than four seats.

Party/Alliance Seats Projection Vote %
TMC 160 40
CPM+ 106 31
Congress 21 8
BJP 4 11
Others 3 9

West Bengal Opinion Poll by Elections.in

Party/Alliance Seat Projection
TMC 190
Congress +Left Front 100
BJP 2
Others 2

West Bengal Opinion Poll by Zee 24 Ghanta

An opinion poll carried out by GFK Mode on behalf of Zee 24 Ghanta has projected that the Trinamool Congress is likely to get 200 seats in the approaching West Bengal Assembly elections. The Congress-Left alliance, which is tipped to get about 90 seats, will emerge a distant runner-up. The BJP would not be able to replicate its Lok Sabha elections performance and may end up with one seat only. The opinion poll shows that the recent Narada News sting operation has not had a major impact on the voters.

Party/Alliance Forecast Seats as per Opinion Poll in March 2016
TMC 200
Left Front-Congress 90
BJP 1
Others 3

West Bengal Opinion Poll by ABP News – Nielsen

Party Actual seats in the 2011 Elections Forecast vote % as per Opinion Poll Feb 2016 Forecast Seats as per Opinion Poll Feb 2016 Forecast vote % as per Opinion Poll Mar 2016 Forecast Seats as per Opinion Poll Mar 2016
AITC 190 44 182 45 178
BJP 1 6 0 5 1
INC 38 43 107 44 110
Left 57
IND and Others 8 7 5 6 5
Total 294 100 294 100 294

West Bengal Opinion Poll by IB (Intelligence Bureau)

(March-2016)
Last week has seen several developments in West Bengal as the political parties gear up for the assembly elections in April-May. Amidst the wide-ranging discussions over BJP’s move to field grandnephew of Subhas Chandra Bose against West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, the Intelligence Bureau submitted a survey report to the Union Home Ministry predicting victory for Mamata Banerjee-led TMC.

According to the IB report, the party will also improve its previous tally of 184 seats in 2011. Suggesting not much hope for the BJP, the report indicated that the party may not win more than five seats.

The report, which was created based on the ground reality, claimed that the Congress would end up being the third largest party in the state with 20-25 seats. Left Front, once again, is likely to emerge as the second largest party with 60-70 seats. While the ruling party will have a thumping victory in South Bengal, the opposition will gain some ground in North Bengal.

Party/Alliance Forecast Seats as per Opinion Poll Mar 2016
TMC More than 184
Left Front 70
Congress 25
BJP 5

West Bengal Opinion Poll India TV by CVoter

According to the survey conducted by C-voter for India TV, Mamata Banerjee-led TMC is likely to win the West Bengal assembly elections and retain power in the state. According to the report released the TMC is expected to win 156 out of the 294 seats in the assembly. This is decline in vote share as compared to what it had got (184) in 2011. The CPI(M)-led Left front is likely to win 114 seats, which will be 54 seats more than the last elections. The vote share of Congress may fall to 13 from 4.

Party/Alliance Forecast Seats as per
Opinion Poll Mar 2016
TMC 156
Left Front 114
Congress 13
Others (including BJP) 11

West Bengal Opinion Poll by ETV Bangla

Party/Alliance Forecast Seats as per Opinion Poll Mar 2016
TMC 201
Left Front 34
Congress 27
Others (including BJP) 32

West Bengal Opinion Poll by ABP News

(May – 2015)

Party Forecast Seats as per Opinion Poll May 2015
TMC 198
BJP 12
INC 40
Left Front 36
Others 7

* Polling organisation/Agency – ABP NEWS – Nielsen

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are of those of the author and do not represent the views of Elections.in.

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