The Tamil Nadu Assembly elections were held in single phase on 16 May 2016. Most exit polls say that incumbent AIADMK will lose power and the DMK-Congress combine will form the next government in the state. Only C-Voter says that Jayalalitha’s AIADMK will return to power.
|India TV-C Voter
|India TV-C Voter
With the Tamil Nadu elections scheduled to be held on 16 May, two new opinion polls have emerged and they have further confused the voters with different predictions.
The Tamil channel News7, in collaboration with the daily Dinamalar, predicted defeat for the AIADMK by giving it about 87 seats. According to the results of a survey of 2.34 lakh respondents, the DMK will win 141 seats and the BJP will open an account with one seat. The opinion polls indicated that the DMDK will one seat, PMK will grab two seats, and others will win about two seats.
Another opinion poll conducted by Tamil Maiyam – a firm run by Father Gasper Raj – an acquaintance of the DMK’s Kanimozhi, predicted that DMK will come to power by winning between 127 and 139 seats. The AIADMK will emerge the second largest party by winning between 81 and 90 seats. Other parties in the fray are expected to get 14-17 seats.
|News7 and Dinamalar||Tamil Maiyam|
|DMK Alliance – 141||DMK Alliance – 127- 139|
|AIADMK Alliance – 87||AIADMK Alliance – 81-90|
|PMK – 2||Others – 14-17|
|DMDK – 1||-|
|BJP – 1||-|
|Others – 2||-|
Two renowned magazines – Nakkeeran and Junior Vikatan – came up with opinion polls ahead of the 16 May elections for 234 Tamil Nadu assembly seats. According to ‘Nakkeeran’ magazine, the DMK alliance is expected to get 133 seats, which is much more than AIADMK’s 75. While the PMK and the Third Front may get one seat each, the results in 24 seats are unpredictable as they are going to witness a very close contest. The survey also indicated the defeat of the PMK’s Anbumani Ramadoss, in Pennagaram.
The ‘Junior Vikatan’ magazine predicted a close fight between the AIADMK and the DMK with the DMK alliance winning 77 seats and the AIADMK alliance getting 73. Unlike Nakkeeran’s survey, this survey predicts Anbumani Ramadoss of the PMK as winner. Interestingly, the survey revealed that results of 83 seats are unpredictable.
|DMK Alliance – 133||DMK Alliance – 77|
|AIADMK Alliance – 75||AIADMK Alliance – 73|
|PMK – 1||PMK – 1|
|Third Front – 1||Third Front – 1|
|Unpredictable seats – 24||Unpredictable seats – 83|
Veteran journalist Prannoy Roy has made some observations on the 2016 Tamil Nadu Assembly polls based on previous elections and current alliances in the state. According to Roy, a party can win this election with 36.5 % vote share. A swing of 5.75% votes could be a deciding factor. It could help the DMK-Congress alliance wrest victory from Jayalalitha. Jayalalitha’s AIADMK swept the 2011 Assembly elections and 2014 Lok Sabha elections. But it must be noted that since 1984, Tamil Nadu has never voted a party back to power. The two regional heavyweights, AIADMK and DMK, have won assembly elections alternately. The grand alliance of other smaller parties, the People’s Welfare Front, makes the competition even tougher this time.
Two opinion polls conducted in South Tamil Nadu districts offer two different pictures of the election outcome in Tamil Nadu.
The opinion poll conducted by Thanthi TV in association with Krish Infomedia projects that the AIADMK-front will be ahead in 22 constituencies. According to the poll, the DMK is likely to win nine seats. The two main parties are going to have a close contest in 19 constituencies. In central Tamil Nadu and Cuddalore district in North Tamil Nadu, the survey results indicate that the DMK and AIADMK are ahead in 13 constituencies each and equally poised in 14 others.
Another opinion poll conducted by News 7 Television in association with Tamil daily Dinamalar for the southern region has projected that the DMK will be ahead in 30 constituencies. Ruling party AIADMK is likely to win in 24 seats while the BJP and DMDK-PWF candidates are ahead in one seat each. The DMK and AIADMK are equally positioned in one constituency.
PWF coordinator Vaiko has rubbished the poll conducted by News 7- Dinamalar as dubious.
If the recently conducted opinion poll done by India TV and C-Voter is taken to be accurate, then the ruling AIADMK will see another term in Tamil Nadu. According to the opinion poll, Jayalalithaa will have a smooth victory with DMK not making any dent in its popularity. The AIADMK and its allies are expected to get 130 seats in the 234-seat assembly, while the opposition DMK will get 70. The BJP, according to opinion poll, is unlikely to win any seat in 2016 Tamil Nadu assembly elections.
|Seat Share %|
|Others Including Third Front(DMDK+PMK)||31|
The opinion poll revealed that the ruling AIADMK is well ahead of DMK in Tamil Nadu. However, the party is going to fall short of majority. The AIADMK is expected to won 116 seats in 234-seat assembly. It’s quite a decline from the 203 seats it currently holds in the Assembly. The DMK’s share, according to the survey report, is likely to rise from 31 to 101. BJP may not be able to open its account as others are projected to win 18 seats.
|Party Wise||Chief Ministers Wise|
|All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) – 34.1%||J. Jayalalithaa – 31.56%|
|Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) – 32.6%||M. K. Stalin – 27.98%|
|Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) – 4%||M. Karunanidhi – 21.33%|
|Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) – 3%||Vijayakanth – 6.24%|
|Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – 2.9%||Anbumani Ramadoss – 2.27%|
|All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)||150|
|All India Forward Bloc (AIFB)||1|
|Communist Party of India (CPI)||9|
|Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM)||10|
|Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK)||29|
|Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam(DMK)||23|
|Indian National Congrass (INC)||5|
|Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMKA)||2|
|Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK)||3|
|Puthiya Tamilagam (PT)||2|