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Tamil Nadu (TN) Exit Poll 2016

By Election Staff Blogger

May 16, 2016

Tamil Nadu (TN) Election 2016 Exit Poll

Pollsters AIADMK DMK+ PWF BJP Others
Elections.in 95 130 5   4
CVoter 139 78 15   2
India Today-Axis 99 132 0   3
News Nation 97 116 14   7
ABP 95 132   1 6
Chanakya 90 149     4
NDTV 103 120   0 11

The Tamil Nadu Assembly elections were held in single phase on 16 May 2016. Most exit polls say that incumbent AIADMK will lose power and the DMK-Congress combine will form the next government in the state. Only C-Voter says that Jayalalitha’s AIADMK will return to power.

Summary of Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2016 Opinion Poll

Party/Alliance Elections.in
(Mar-2016)
India TV-C Voter
(Mar-2016)
News Nation
(Mar-2016)
Loyola College
(Mar-2016)
India TV-C Voter
(Feb-2016)
AIADMK 125 130 105 80 116
DMK+ 75 70 109 76 104
DMDK+ 31 30 1 16 -
BJP 2 0 0 7 0
Others 1 4 19 - 14
Total Seats 234 234 234 179 234

Tamil Nadu Opinion Poll by Tamil channel News7, in collaboration with the daily Dinamalar

With the Tamil Nadu elections scheduled to be held on 16 May, two new opinion polls have emerged and they have further confused the voters with different predictions.

The Tamil channel News7, in collaboration with the daily Dinamalar, predicted defeat for the AIADMK by giving it about 87 seats. According to the results of a survey of 2.34 lakh respondents, the DMK will win 141 seats and the BJP will open an account with one seat. The opinion polls indicated that the DMDK will one seat, PMK will grab two seats, and others will win about two seats.

Another opinion poll conducted by Tamil Maiyam – a firm run by Father Gasper Raj – an acquaintance of the DMK’s Kanimozhi, predicted that DMK will come to power by winning between 127 and 139 seats. The AIADMK will emerge the second largest party by winning between 81 and 90 seats. Other parties in the fray are expected to get 14-17 seats.

News7 and Dinamalar Tamil Maiyam
DMK Alliance – 141 DMK Alliance – 127- 139
AIADMK Alliance – 87 AIADMK Alliance – 81-90
PMK – 2 Others – 14-17
DMDK – 1 -
BJP – 1 -
Others – 2 -

Tamil Nadu Opinion Poll by Renowned Magazines – Nakkeeran and Junior Vikatan

Two renowned magazines – Nakkeeran and Junior Vikatan – came up with opinion polls ahead of the 16 May elections for 234 Tamil Nadu assembly seats.  According to ‘Nakkeeran’ magazine, the DMK alliance is expected to get 133 seats, which is much more than AIADMK’s 75. While the PMK and the Third Front may get one seat each, the results in 24 seats are unpredictable as they are going to witness a very close contest. The survey also indicated the defeat of the PMK’s Anbumani Ramadoss, in Pennagaram.

The ‘Junior Vikatan’ magazine predicted a close fight between the AIADMK and the DMK with the DMK alliance winning 77 seats and the AIADMK alliance getting 73. Unlike Nakkeeran’s survey, this survey predicts Anbumani Ramadoss of the PMK as winner.   Interestingly, the survey revealed that results of 83 seats are unpredictable.

Nakkeeran Junior Vikatan
DMK Alliance – 133 DMK Alliance – 77
AIADMK Alliance – 75 AIADMK Alliance – 73
PMK – 1 PMK – 1
Third Front – 1 Third Front – 1
Unpredictable seats – 24 Unpredictable seats – 83

Prannoy Roy’s Analysis on TN Assembly Election 2016

Veteran journalist Prannoy Roy has made some observations on the 2016 Tamil Nadu Assembly polls based on previous elections and current alliances in the state. According to Roy, a party can win this election with 36.5 % vote share. A swing of 5.75% votes could be a deciding factor. It could help the DMK-Congress alliance wrest victory from Jayalalitha. Jayalalitha’s AIADMK swept the 2011 Assembly elections and 2014 Lok Sabha elections. But it must be noted that since 1984, Tamil Nadu has never voted a party back to power. The two regional heavyweights, AIADMK and DMK, have won assembly elections alternately. The grand alliance of other smaller parties, the People’s Welfare Front, makes the competition even tougher this time.

Opinion Poll by Thanthi TV and News 7

Two opinion polls conducted in South Tamil Nadu districts offer two different pictures of the election outcome in Tamil Nadu.

The opinion poll conducted by Thanthi TV in association with Krish Infomedia projects that the AIADMK-front will be ahead in 22 constituencies. According to the poll, the DMK is likely to win nine seats. The two main parties are going to have a close contest in 19 constituencies. In central Tamil Nadu and Cuddalore district in North Tamil Nadu, the survey results indicate that the DMK and AIADMK are ahead in 13 constituencies each and equally poised in 14 others.

Another opinion poll conducted by News 7 Television in association with Tamil daily Dinamalar for the southern region has projected that the DMK will be ahead in 30 constituencies. Ruling party AIADMK is likely to win in 24 seats while the BJP and DMDK-PWF candidates are ahead in one seat each. The DMK and AIADMK are equally positioned in one constituency.

PWF coordinator Vaiko has rubbished the poll conducted by News 7- Dinamalar as dubious.

Tamil Nadu Assembly elections: Opinion poll suggests another term for AIADMK TIMES NOW – CVOTER

If the recently conducted opinion poll done by India TV and C-Voter is taken to be accurate, then the ruling AIADMK will see another term in Tamil Nadu. According to the opinion poll, Jayalalithaa will have a smooth victory with DMK not making any dent in its popularity. The AIADMK and its allies are expected to get 130 seats in the 234-seat assembly, while the opposition DMK will get 70. The BJP, according to opinion poll, is unlikely to win any seat in 2016 Tamil Nadu assembly elections.

Party Seat Projection
(Mar-2016)
Seat Share %
AIADMK+ 130 39
DMK + 70 32
Others Including
Third Front(DMDK+PMK+)
34 25
BJP 0 4

Tamil Nadu Opinion Poll by Elections.in

Party/Alliance Seat Projection
(Mar-2016)
AIADMK+ 125
DMK + 75
Others Including Third Front(DMDK+PMK) 31
BJP 2

Tamil Nadu Opinion Poll by India TV-CVoter

The opinion poll revealed that the ruling AIADMK is well ahead of DMK in Tamil Nadu. However, the party is going to fall short of majority. The AIADMK is expected to won 116 seats in 234-seat assembly. It’s quite a decline from the 203 seats it currently holds in the Assembly. The DMK’s share, according to the survey report, is likely to rise from 31 to 101. BJP may not be able to open its account as others are projected to win 18 seats.

Party Seats Projection
(Feb-2016)
AIADMK 116
DMK 101
Others 17

Tamil Nadu Opinion Poll by Loyola College

Party Wise Chief Ministers Wise
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) – 34.1% J. Jayalalithaa – 31.56%
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) – 32.6% M. K. Stalin – 27.98%
Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) – 4% M. Karunanidhi – 21.33%
Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) – 3% Vijayakanth – 6.24%
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – 2.9% Anbumani Ramadoss – 2.27%

Tamil Nadu Election Results 2011

Paty Name Seats
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) 150
All India Forward Bloc (AIFB) 1
Communist Party of India (CPI) 9
Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) 10
Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) 29
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam(DMK) 23
Indian National Congrass (INC) 5
Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMKA) 2
Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) 3
Puthiya Tamilagam (PT) 2
Total 234
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Disclaimer: The views expressed are of those of the author and do not represent the views of Elections.in.
Comments (84) :
  1. tamilndau 2016 election DMK WIN 100 %

  2. bjp aiadmk make allince

  3. dmk will win

  4. why DMK and AIADMK alone. We want change this time. May be DMDK with PWF

  5. amma win sure

  6. I think ANBUMANI RAMADOSS will win this time.

  7. Hello sir
    What results will be take over
    If NOTA gets thethe majority

  8. 100 % DMK Will be Win. If DMK win only we can hope tamilnadu will be get develop . If not then again we need to wait till 2021 for development.

  9. I believe AIADMK is still solid even after recent flood in Chennai & other 3 districts, and it will win about 175 -180 seats in coming election of2016 without any major alliance like BJP. If alliance with BJP the AIADMK alliance will get about 200-210 seats

    • No doubt DMK will rule the next 5 years.

      admk will go for a toss. No development at all. Corruption every where. They have swindled peoples money to the tune of 4 Lakh crores.

      Worst regime ever seen.

      Sand smugglers
      Mine smugglers
      Granite swindlers.
      Power corruption (with Aadani group).
      Chembarambakkam mismanagement.
      Aavin Milk corruption (per day 2Lakh litres)
      Law & order at its peak. Theft, murder…

  10. position at this stage…..

    DMK + Cong = 180 seats
    AIADMK= ????
    Others= ?????

  11. amma will win

  12. i am at saidapet, chennai

    I go for admk

    there is huge good change in our location eg.
    amma hotel mini bus
    good roads
    new parks with gym accessories
    led road lights

  13. mohahasundaram

    2016 – DMK WIN 140 ABOVE SEATS

  14. whole Tamilnadu is supporting Thiru.Seeman of Naam Tamizhar Katche.

    He is the perfect leader of Tamilnadu and he is one and only who solves all the problems like poverty, corruption, and make tamilnadu self sufficient. He is also the one who can start GREEN REVOLUTION. Read his plans in PDF form. No one dared to release one. They are the change for Tamils and Tamilnadu.

  15. P.M SELVA DURAI

    AIADMK WIN , AMMA IS THE CM OF TAMILNADU

  16. amma is going to win 234 seat. she is going to be cm for next 10 years

  17. ADMK-234
    DKM-0
    Makkalnala kuttani-0
    PMK-0

  18. Today’s position —
    DMK + Cong winning about 185 seats
    AIADMK = about 40 seats

  19. Next cm in tamilnadu jaya only…no doubt

  20. AIADMDK Rules the Government Forever.. Vaalga AMMA…

  21. thanimanithan

    as a common man i would like to go with ADMK this time to send DMK permanantly to hell.in 2011 or 2026 we will send ADMK to hell…plan okay.

    • if dmk win then rise kanthu vatty .express vatty. meter vatty. katta panchayat’and police station also will change to vattam. mavattam office. so u think .i think madam only saviour for middle class people

  22. i am with bjp so

    BJP only the winner

  23. Today’s position…
    DMK + Cong = 145 + seats
    AIADMK = about 80 seats
    BJP = NIL
    Others = rest

  24. Position as of now…
    DMK + Cong = 160 seats
    AIADMK = 75 seats
    BJP = NIL= Others= Remaining seats
    BUT If AAP field its candidates independently, they would have formed Govt comfortably , but, alas, they this missed opportunity.

  25. please change the name in above list. Karunanidhi in DMK. not DMDK.

  26. ADMK = 155
    DMK = 45
    DMDK + = 34

  27. M.S. Sekar Reddy

    Tamilndau 2016 election AIADMK WIN 100 % next CM Amma.

  28. Sundersingh Gnanapirakasam

    DMK will form Government

  29. suresh kuppam

    Admk-165 dmk- 40

  30. @@@ I am surprised by revelations of Time ….and please convey it to all ….that Time says..
    1. Assam ..Cong + set to form next govt. Cong will win at 65 + seats.
    2. West Bengal….Left Front winning 130 + seats, TMC winning 110 + seats, Cong winning 50 + seats..Any party will need Cong help to form Govt in WB…BJP is no where.
    3. Tamil Nadu….DMK + Cong winning and forming next govt. Together they will win 150 + seats.
    4. Kerala….LDF and UDF have equal chances..situation may change in last phase of polling.
    5. Congress and third front are moving upwards, unexpectedly

  31. Madurai Murgan

    AS ON 12.4.2016 ADMK WILL WIN MORE THAN 180 SEATS. AFTER ADMK MANIFESTO IT WILL WIN MORE THAN 200 SEATS. WAIT & SEE

  32. If jaya win nobody can rescue tn .vote only dmk than tn will be come top .do u know guys we r last now .jaya thinks she is a god.

  33. This 2016 elections would be a wash out for admk. They would be trounced, thrown out of power.

    People have been waiting for their turn to show their anger towards this govt.

    Simple words no development at all……

  34. ADMK only has the chance to win in this election

  35. Biased …where is Nam tamilar katchi..

  36. ADMK Easily will sweep this election with 200+ seats and sure DMK Will not be a oppositio party for this time also.

  37. Win for AIADMK

  38. Yes.. Whole of Tamilnadu is supporting Thiru.Seeman of Naam Tamizhar Katche.

  39. 2016 election DMK win 135 seats
    AIAdmk 54 seats
    congress + muslim leaks-16 seats
    Dmdk -16
    Mdmdk- 3
    communists + vsk -8

    thamaka -0
    seeman-0
    mdmk-0

  40. Ofcourse Amma will be become as a CM of Tamilnadu again with solid victory overall Tamilnadu. She gave so many schemes for tamilnadu people and everybody appreciate her performance as a single woman.

  41. ADMK-112
    DMK-95
    DMDK-24
    PMK-3

  42. Time says…..position now…
    AIADMK… ahead in about 110 seats
    DMK + Cong …ahead in about 120 seats
    NDA…. NIL
    Others…rest
    Final position will appear one day before polling….

  43. Nam tamilar must win. Win tamilaaaa

  44. AIADMK + win = 89 seats
    DMK + win = 127 seats
    DMDK + win = 09 seats
    PMK + win = 05 seats
    PJB + win = 03 seats
    NTK + win (Seeman) = 01 seat

    above results was possible 2016

  45. V.KARTHIKEYAN

    AIADMK -125+
    DMK-70 +/-
    DMDK ALLIANCE 40 +/-

  46. How Mean our Media’s are all.There is not even single place where NTK is mentioned.But Truth will show-up after the election.

  47. Time says…Today’s position….
    AIADMK = ahead in about 100 seats
    DMK + Cong = ahead in about 130 seats
    NDA = NIL
    Others = rest of the seats

  48. suresh kuppam

    Admk wins more than 200 seats

  49. AIADMK 80 TO 90
    DMK 75 TO 90
    DMDK 30 TO 40
    BJP 2 TO 5
    PMK 5 TO 7
    OTHERS 5 TO 10

  50. ADMK WIN 170

    DMK WIN 56

    OTHERS WIN 8

  51. Aiadmk will win and again puratchi thalaivi Selvi J Jayalalitha will become a Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu

  52. Captain will win this time…..

  53. DMDK+ 110
    AIADMK 60
    DMK 50
    BJP 2 TO 5
    PMK 5 TO 7
    OTHERS 5

  54. ADMK- 135
    DMK-55
    DMDK-35
    PMK-5
    BJP-2
    Other-2
    Total:234

    Survey Report : May-2016

  55. Guys… Please take a note as polling result as below

    AIADMK– 185
    DMK-25
    PWF-10
    BJP-10
    PMK-4

  56. Dr. D. Lakshmanan

    ADMK – 109
    DMK – 104
    BJP – 4
    MDMK – 10
    PMK-7
    The above expected results are for 70 % of polling, if the polling increases to 90 % and above BJP would be elected at least for 26 seats.

  57. Chandrashekar k v

    DMK &AIDMK Will not get full majority
    As per my prediction DMK will be short fall 10-12 seats (107)
    AIDMK Will be short fall of 6 – 10 seats. (116)
    MDMK 4- 5
    BJP 2-4
    PMK 4-6
    remaining other parties

  58. P.M SELVA DURAI

    Ofcourse Amma will be become as a CM of Tamilnadu again with solid victory overall Tamilnadu. She gave so many schemes for tamilnadu people and everybody appreciate her performance as a single woman.
    if dmk won tamil nada withu poduvanga

  59. chandrasekharan

    many expect changes in election
    no party will get single majority
    winning chances to dmk and admk with support of other parties are almost equal

    can not say, if there will be problem, one more election may come shortly

  60. this very good change for admk only. dmk one family party

  61. Chandrasekar.M.R

    This time no doubt about that AIADMK will role the tamilnadu

  62. Chances of hung assembly…though DMK + Congress have better chances for forming next govt

  63. &&&& Chances of hung assembly…though DMK + Congress have better chances for forming next govt.

  64. This time ADMK will be vanished away from TN and henceforth there will be no more ADMK in TN to rule.

  65. This time ADMK will be vanished away from TN and will be defeated very badly, bcz of the proud of the CM whom called herself as AMMA. Its very shame to call as Amma, since she don’t have any passion with people. I say that no more ADMK in TN henceforth.

    • Prediction of Results by PPTTI-2016

      1. ADMK + – 98 (+-) 10
      2. DMK + – 66 (+-) 6
      3. DMDK+ – 23 (+-) 3
      4. PMK – 12 (+-) 3
      5. BJP – 01 (marginal defeat in CBE)
      6. IJK – 01
      7. kongu – 01
      8. NM seeman=03 marginal defeat in 6 loc.
      9. IND – 00
      by Election-prediction …….. Baba

  66. Karuna Jayam nidhi lalitha

    DMDK will win 2016 elections

  67. parimelazhagan

    engalai pondra satharna makkalludaiya valiya govt officers purijikarathilla,

  68. SIVARAM SMS IAS

    The statistics of Tamilnadu people opinion says that DMK may fill the cm seat….!!

  69. திமுக வெற்றி பெறும்

  70. DMK+ – 232 +-2
    2. ADMK -00000000
    3. DMDK-00000
    4. PMK – 00000
    5. BJP – 000000
    6. IJK – 0000
    7. kongu – 00000
    8. NM -000
    9. IND – 00
    by Election-prediction …….. Baba
    Reply
    - See more at: http://www.elections.in/blog/tamil-nadu-election-exit-polls-2016/#sthash.z5RozvmJ.dpuf

  71. Admk will vin sure

  72. ADMK – 109 DMK – 104 BJP – 4 MDMK – 10 PMK-7 The above expected results are for 70 % of polling, if the polling increases to 90 % and above BJP would be elected at least for 26 seats.

  73. Its going to be interesting assembly period….because of strong opposition….

  74. Definitely this time hung assembly in tamil nadu

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