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Kerala Exit Poll 2016

May 16, 2016

Kerala Election 2016 Exit Poll

Pollsters UDF+ LDF+ BJP+ Others
Elections.in 45 90 2 3
CVoter 58 78 2 2
India Today-Axis 43 94 3 0
News Nation 70 69 1  
Chanakya 57 75 8  
NDTV 57 79 3 1

The Kerala Assembly election was held in single phase on 16 May in 140 constituencies of the state assembly. Exit polls by and large say that incumbent UDF will be thrown out of power and the LDF will form the next government. The exit poll by News Nation though gives a different story: according to it, UDF will get 70 seats, LDF 69 and BJP 1.

Summary of Kerala Assembly Election 2016 Opinion Poll

(March – 2016) (April – 2016)
Party/Alliance Elections.in Times Now-CVoter India TV C-voter Asianet Poll Asianet Poll
LDF 82 86 89 77 78
UDF 55 53 49 55 59
BJP 3 1 1 3 3
Other  -  - 1 5  -
Total Seats 140 140 140 140 140

Kerala Opinion Poll by IMEG

According to a pre-poll survey conducted by IMEG (Institute for Monitoring Economic Growth), Thiruvananthapuram, the CPI(M)-led LDF is coming to power in Kerala in 2016. It appears that voters of Kerala are going to reject both the BJP and Congress-led incumbent UDF. The IMEG survey has projected the LDF to win 83-90 seats in the 2016 Assembly elections while the UDF will have to satisfy itself with 50 to 57 seats. The BJP-led NDA may see an increase in its vote share but it may not be sufficient to open its account in the Assembly. The IMEG survey was conducted among 60,000 voters from south, central and north regions of Kerala.

Kerala Assembly elections: Times Now-CVoter opinion poll hints at the return of Left

According to a pre-poll survey by Times Now-CVoter and CNN-IBN suggests a whopping victory for the LDF as the anti-incumbency factor will lead to the defeat of ruling UDF. The LDF is likely to get 86 seats in the 140-seat assembly. The ruling UDF is expected to bag only 53 seats during the elections scheduled to be held on 16 May. The NDA, which is likely to eat into the vote share of UDF, will see 10% votes going in their favour.

Party/Alliance Seat Projection Seat Share %
LDF 86 44
UDF 53 41
NDA 1 10
Others 0 5

Kerala Opinion Poll by India TV C-voter

The opinion poll conducted by C-voter for India TV indicated that the Left Democratic Front (LDF) may stage a comeback in Kerala. If the report of the survey is taken at a face value, Chief Minister Oommen Chandy’s UDF will be ousted from power since it is expected to win only 49 seats. The LDF is likely to come back to power by winning 89 seats in the 140-member Assembly. There’s a slight probability of BJP-led front winning one seat.

Party Seats
LDF 89
UDF 49
BJP-led front 1

Kerala Opinion Poll by Elections.in

Party/Alliance Seat Projection
LDF 82
UDF 55
NDA 3

Kerala Opinion Poll by Asianet poll

(Feb 2016) As Kerala gears up to hold elections for the 140-seat assembly, the opinion poll survey indicates that the Left will win the polls. According to C for Survey conducted for Asianet, BJP will open its account in the state for the first time, and that too with 18% vote share. The 2016 Kerala Assembly elections opinion poll has predicted that LDF will win between 77 and 82 seats, thus securing the majority. The survey results indicate that the ruling United Democratic Front (UDF) will emerge as the second largest party with 55 to 60 seats. The BJP is likely to gain three to five seats. It is to be noted that the Oommen Chandy-led UDF will get 37% of the vote share despite being mired in controversies and the LDF’s vote share will reduce from 44.94% in 2011 to 41%. The reason, according to pollsters, is eating away of the UDF and LDF vote shares by the NDA. The survey, which continued from 1-16 February, was conducted in 70 constituencies comprising 568 villages and 148 towns.

Party No. of Seats Vote Share
LDF 77 – 82 41.00%
United Democratic Front 55 – 60 37.00%
BJP 3 – 5 18.00%

Polling Agency: Asianet Survey Date: 1 Feb to 16 Feb 2016

Kerala Legislative Assembly Election 2011 Results

Party Seats
Communist Party of India (CPI) 13
Communist Party of Indian (Marxist) (CPM) 45
Indian National Congress (INC) 38
Janata Dal (Secular) JD(S) 4
Kerala Congress (Jacob) (KEC)(J) 1
Kerala Congress (M) (KCM) 9
Kerala Congress (B) KEC(B) 1
Kerala Revolutionary Socialist Party(Baby John) (KRSP) 1
Muslim League Kerala State Committee (MUL) 20
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) 2
Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) 2
Socialist Janta (Democratic) (SJD) 2
Independent (IND) 2
Total 140
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Disclaimer: The views expressed are of those of the author and do not represent the views of Elections.in.

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