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Bihar Election Exit Polls 2015

November 7, 2015

Bihar Election Exit Polls

Pollsters BJP+ JDU+ Others
Elections.in 118-125 120-128 5-7
NDTV 120-130 105-115 5-10
ABP-Neilsen 108 130 5
India Today – Cicero 120 117 6
News Nation 117 122 10
CNX- News-X 93 132 18
News24- Today’s Chanakya 155 83 5
India TV-C Voter 111 122 10
AAJ Tak – Cicero 120 117 6

 

With the final phase of polling for the Bihar elections ending on Thursday evening, the action has shifted to TV studios where the results of the exit polls conducted by media houses are being announced. If previous state and national elections are any indication, exit polls provide a more accurate picture of the people’s mood than opinion polls. However, a word of caution: we will have to wait for Sunday to get the final verdict.

While state elections cannot be seen as a referendum on the central government, what has made Bihar elections different is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal involvement. Not only did he address dozens of elections rallies, he was also the face of the NDA campaign. The stakes are even higher for Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar. Another win will make the JD(U) leader a national player to watch out for in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

The exit polls will give the first indication on whether the speculations over Lalu Prasad Yadav’s return to the centre stage of Bihar’s politics have any credibility.

 

Latest Bihar Opinion Poll (Oct-2015)

Zee Media Group
Political Alliances No. of Seats Vote Share
Grand Alliance (JDU-RJD-Congress) 64 40.20%
BJP-led NDA Alliance 147 53.80%
Others 32 6.00%
ABP-Neilsen
Political Alliances No. of Seats Vote Share
Grand Alliance (JDU-RJD-Congress) 112 42.00%
BJP-led NDA Alliance 128 42.00%
Others 3 18.00%
India Today – Cicero
Political Alliances No. of Seats Vote Share
Grand Alliance (JDU-RJD-Congress) 117-125 41.00%
BJP-led NDA Alliance 107-115 39.00%
Others 0 20.00%
News Nation
Political Alliances No. of Seats Vote Share
Grand Alliance (JDU-RJD-Congress) 125 – 129 45.00%
BJP-led NDA Alliance 111 – 115 42.00%
Others 2 13.00%
CNN-IBN
Political Alliances No. of Seats
Grand Alliance (JDU-RJD-Congress) 137
BJP-led NDA Alliance 95
Others 11
Times Now-C Voter
Political Alliances No. of Seats
Grand Alliance (JDU-RJD-Congress) 116
BJP-led NDA Alliance 119
Others 8

Nitish, Modi equally popular in Bihar, opinion poll reveals

An opinion poll by ABP News-Nielsen has revealed that JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoy equal popularity among Biharis, both scoring 48 per cent in the popularity index.

Overall, Narendra Modi is slightly more popular among urban voters and youth, but he is tied with Nitish when the state is taken as a whole.

While 50 per cent of respondents believe that Nitish should be given another chance to become chief minister of Bihar, 47 per cent think otherwise.

Forty-nine percent of those polled said Nitish was the most suitable choice for becoming the next CM; on the other hand 45 per cent felt that Sushil Kumar Modi is the most popular leader in the NDA with a clean and honest image.

While 49 per cent feel that the NDA will form the next government in Bihar, 45 per cent of respondents think the RJD-JD(U)-Congress Grand Alliance will be successful in capturing power.

A majority of 60 per cent respondents feel that Prime Minister Modi’s announcement of Rs 1.25 lakh crore package for Bihar will benefit the BJP in the assembly elections.

While 53 per cent of respondents believe that the BJP should project a chief ministerial candidate, 35 per cent felt the party should contest on the strength of prime minister Modi’s name, according to the ABP News-Nielsen poll.

More than two-thirds of the respondents rated the JD(U)-led government’s performance over the last five years as ‘good’ or ‘very good’. Similarly, about two-thirds of those polled rated chief minister Nitish Kumar’s performance over the last five years as ‘good’ or ‘very good’.

Forty-six per cent believe that there has been overall development in Bihar since the Modi government came to power at the Centre, but an equal number, 46 per cent, do not agree with that assessment.

NDA to get clear victory in Bihar, says survey (6th Oct 2015)

Political Alliances No. of Seats
Grand Alliance (JDU-RJD-Congress) 64
BJP-led NDA Alliance 147
Others 32

 * By Zee Media Group

A clear victory is predicted for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance in the Bihar assembly polls, with it set to win 147 seats in the 243-member house, according to a survey by Zee News and “Janta Ka Mood”. The “grand alliance” of Janata Dal-United, Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress is predicted to lag with just 64 seats. There were 32 seats where fight would be very close, said the survey. According to a press release, the NDA is predicted to get 53.8 percent votes and the grand alliance 40.2 percent votes. Others are expected to get six percent votes. The survey said that NDA would do well in the first phase election for 49 seats on October 12 and is expected to get 53.8 percent of votes while the grand alliance is expected to get 40.1 percent of votes. It said that the NDA has a clear lead over the grand alliance in the other four phases also, and is also likely to win maximum seats in the Maoist-affected areas. “From Arrah to Sitamarhi, the NDA is likely to get 54.6 percent votes while the grand alliance 39.7 percent of votes,” the release said.  Source: IANS

 Times Now-C-Voter opinion poll

Times Now-C-Voter opinion poll (September 23)
Party Seats Vote Share
NDA 117 43.00%
JD(U)+ 112 42.00%
Others 14 15.00%
Total 243 100.00%

The latest Times Now-C-Voter opinion poll indicates that the BJP-led NDA may have a slight advantage over the Nitish Kumar-led front. NDA’s vote percentage has gone up to 43% compared to the Mahagathbandhan’s 42%. A poll by the same agency a fortnight ago had given the JDU-RJD-Congress combine 43% of the vote, and the NDA 40%.

Similarly, the opinion poll suggests that NDA could garner 117 seats, falling just short of the 122 needed for a clear majority, while the JDU-led alliance will be closely behind with 112 seats. In such a situation, the 14 seats by the others could play a crucial role.

Bihar Opinion Poll Survey of ABP News-Nielsen

Latest Opinion Poll of ABP News-Nielsen shows that Bihar Assembly election is going to witness a close finish as Grand Alliance (JDU, RJD, and Congress) is expected to win 122 seats, closely followed by NDA alliance with 118 seats. Others will be marginalized to just 3 seats (18 per cent vote share). While Grand Alliance is predicted to get 43 per cent votes, BJP+ will get 39 per cent votes. In comparison to the survey conducted by ABP News-Nielsen two months back, Grand alliance’s seat tally has dipped from 129 to 122. However, NDA gained momentum in last 2 months and improved seat tally by 6 seats (an increase of 7 per cent vote share), closing in on Nitish Kumar led Grand Alliance.

Bihar Assembly Elections Opinion Poll 2015 ( 20 Sep 2015 )
Political Alliances Seats Poll Percentage
Grand Alliance (JDU-RJD-Congress) 122 43
BJP-led NDA Alliance 118 39
Others 3 18
Total 243 100

 * By ABP News-Nielsen

Bihar Opinion Poll Survey of  Zee Media Group

Bihar Assembly Elections Opinion Poll 2015 ( 20 Sep 2015 )
Political Alliances Seats Poll Percentage
Grand Alliance (JDU-RJD-Congress) 70 42.5
BJP-led NDA Alliance 140 50.8
Others - 6.7
Inconclusive Result 33 -
Total 243 100

 * By Zee Media Group

Zee Media Group conducted pre-poll survey predicted a decisive victory for the BJP-led NDA alliance (including LJP, HAM, and RLSP) in Bihar Assembly election 2015. The survey expected 50.8 per cent polling in favour of NDA-alliance and 42.5 per cent in favour of the Grand Alliance (JD(U)-RJD-Congress-Janata Dal Secular). While BJP’s alliance may win 140 seats, the Grand Alliance may secure just 70 seats. Close contest is expected in 33 seats with no clear picture on the winner. NDA alliance and Nitish Kumar-led Grand alliance will be able to secure 41.2 per cent and 52.4 per cent of Muslim votes respectively. Majority of Hindu votes (52.6 per cent) will swing in favour of BJP+ with just 40.8 per cent going to the Grand Alliance, followed by 6 per cent to Others.

Nitish-Lalu alliance ahead of NDA in Bihar: Opinion Poll (July 2015)

The JD(U)-RJD alliance along with Congress is projected to get a majority in the Bihar assembly elections. According to the poll conducted by ABP News-Nielsen, the Nitish-Lalu alliance is likely to to get around 129 seats in the 243-seat assembly. The BJP and its allies are expected to get 112 seats. According to the poll, 52% respondents have voted Nitish Kumar as the most suitable candidate for chief ministership and 54% feel that he should be given another chance to become CM. The opinion poll, which was conducted in 73 assembly constituencies in Bihar, revealed that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar was more popular in the state than Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are of those of the author and do not represent the views of Elections.in.

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